한국의 기후변화 경제적 비용 추정: 피해비용과 탄소 감축비용을 모두 고려하여
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Korea: Accounting for Climate Damage and Carbon Abatement Costs
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본 연구는 기후변화로 인한 한국의 경제적 비용(기후변화 피해비용 및 탄소 감축비용)을 정량적으로 추정하였다. 추정 결과, 가장 효율적인 거시경제 및 탄소 감축 정책 도입시 기후변화로 인한 우리나라의 경제적 비용은 503조원(평균, 현재가치)으로 나타났으며, 이는 주로 기후변화에 따른 사회․경제적 피해(피해비용) 에서 기인한다. 반면, 우리나라에서 현재 추진 중인 2030 NDC(국가자발적기여) 목표와 2050 탄소중립 목표의 달성은 저탄소 경제 전환에 따른 탄소 감축비용을단기간에 급증시켜 결과적으로 경제적 비용이 현저하게 상승하는 것으로 나타났다(각각 1,539조원, 2,517조원, 평균, 현재가치). 다만, 경제적 비용 추정에 영향을 미치는 세 가지 주요 불확실성(장기 인구․경제 전망, 피해함수, 사회적 할인율)을 고려할 때 NDC나 탄소중립과 같은 급진적인 탄소 감축 목표가 경제적 효율성을 충족하는 상황(예를 들어 장기 인구․경제의 저성장, 극단적인 기후재난의발생, 낮은 사회적 할인율 등)을 배제할 수 없다. 이러한 결과는 불확실성을 감소시키기 위한 노력(기후변화 연구 활성화 등)이 최적 기후 정책의 수립에 중요함을시사하는 동시에 향후 불확실성 하에서의 최적 기후 정책에 대한 심도있는 논의가 필요함을 역설한다. 이 분석은 거시경제학을 기반으로 한 대표적 기후-경제 통합평가모형인 RICE 모형을 활용하여 수행되었다.
Abstract
This study evaluates the economic impacts of climate change on the Korean economy, encompassing both climate-related damages and the costs of carbon abatement. Employing a probabilistic approach, the analysis incorporates uncertainty across three significant factors identified in the literature: long-term population and GDP forecasts, climate damage functions, and the social discount rate. The findings show that the overall impact of climate change on the Korean economy amounts to 503 trillion Korean Won (KRW) when implementing optimal economic and climate policies. Furthermore, the ambitious carbon reduction targets set by the Korean government, such as the 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the 2050 Net Zero goals, significantly escalate economic costs by three to five times (to 1,539 and 2,517 trillion KRW, respectively), primarily due to substantial short-term carbon abatement expenses. However, the extensive uncertainty surrounding these estimates suggests that one cannot definitively label the rapid carbon reduction targets as inefficient. This highlights the necessity of fostering discussions on optimal climate policies that are in harmony with economic growth amidst significant uncertainty. The study also underscores the crucial role of supporting research on climate change to reduce this uncertainty. The analysis employs the RICE model, a widely recognized climate-economy integrated assessment model based on optimal growth theory.
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