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한국 선거에서의 회고적 투표: 이론과 현실

Retrospective Voting in Korean Elections: Theories and the Reality

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초록

회고적 투표 이론에서 제시하는 바와는 달리 한국 선거에서는 현직 대통령의 국정운영에 대한 평가가 부정적임에도 불구하고 집권 여당의 후보가 선거에서 승리하는 현상이 종종 발생한다. 실제 연구에서도 어떠한 선거를 다루는가에 따라 회고적 평가가 유권자의 투표선택에 중요한 영향을 끼친다는 결과와 그렇지 않다는 상반된 결과가 나타나고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 문제의식에서 본 논문은 회고적 투표와 관련한 최근의 국내·외 연구 성과를 살펴봄으로써 앞으로 후속 연구가 참고할 수 있는 이론적·경험적 함의를 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 특히 앞으로의 후속 연구가 고려해야 할 점으로 단순히 특정한 선거에서 회고적 평가가 투표선택에 유의미한 영향을 끼치는가를 확인하는 작업을 넘어서서 (1) 한국 선거에서 어떠한 정치적·제도적 조건에서 회고적 투표가 나타나거나 나타나지 않는지에 대한 통시적·비교적 연구의 필요성, (2) 유권자들이 회고적 평가가 투표선택에 반영되는 심리적 메커니즘과 그 한계에 대한 정치심리학적 연구의 필요성, 그리고 (3) 설문조사에 의존한 분석에서 벗어난 방법론적 다양화의 필요성 등을 촉구한다.

Abstract

In contrast to what the theory of retrospective voting tells us, it is often the case that low levels of presidential approval do not hinder candidates of the incumbent party from winning the election in Korea. In fact, studies have presented mixed finding regarding the effect of retrospective evaluations on vote choices in Korea, depending on which election is being studied. In this respect, this paper aims to overview the state-of-art literature on retrospective voting and to provide theoretical and empirical implications for subsequent studies in the future. In particular, this paper calls for going beyond simply identifying whether retrospective evaluations significantly influence vote choices, to (1) comparative studies on political and institutional conditions under which Korean voters vote retrospectively or prospectively, (2) political psychological studies on psychological mechanisms (and limits thereof) through which retrospective evaluations lead to vote choices, and (3) the necessity for methodological diversity beyond standard survey research.

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