남해회사 거품(South Sea Bubble)을 위한 변명
An Apology for the South Sea Bubble
0
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
1720년 발생한 남해회사 거품은 지난 2세기를 거치면서 비이성적 투기를 대표하는 사례로 널리 이해되었다. 그러나 실제 남해회사의 사례는 비판적 평판과는 큰 차이가 있었다. 본 연구는 남해회사에 대한 수정주의적 연구 성과들을 반영하여 역사적 재평가를 하고자 한다. 우선 남해회사는 통상의 현대적 민간기업과는 달리 정부가 주도한 민관 합작 프로젝트로 탄생했다. 중상주의적 경제 환경과 설립목적을 제대로 파악하는 것이 거품의 실체를 이해하는 첫걸음이다. 둘째, 주가의 급변동은 남해회사에 고유한 현상이 아니었다. 영국 및 주변국들의 금융혁신과 대서양무역에 대한 기대가 반영된 결과였다. 셋째, 남해회사 주식에 대한 투자를 비이성적 과열이라고 보기 어렵다. 거품에 ‘올라타는’ 합리적 투자자와 남해회사의 노예무역 실적이 이를 뒷받침한다. 마지막으로, 당시의 비판과는 달리 월폴이 주도한 사후처리 과정은 대체로 긍정적인 성과를 냈다. 여론의 공분과 금융제도에 대한 과도한 규제 도입의 목소리를 잠재우고 단기간 내에 대중의 신뢰를 회복하는 데에 성공을 했다. 이는 금융제도와 경제발전에 긍정적 영향을 끼쳤고, 재산권과 법치를 강조함으로써 시민혁명을 실질적으로 완결 짓는 성과로도 이어졌다.
Abstract
Since its outbreak in 1720 the South Sea bubble has been understood as a typical example of irrational speculation. But there is a wide gap between the negative reputation of the historical incidence and what actually happened in the company and the British economy as a whole. This paper attempts at a critical review of the South Sea bubble by incorporating recent researches in the revisionist threads. Above all, unlike modern private companies, the South Sea Company was established as a government-private sector joint-venture, initiated by the government. Both the purpose of the firm and the mercantile economic system of the day draw a sharp contrast to modern-day business environments. Secondly, the fluctuation of stock price was not unique to the South Sea company. Many firms in Britain and in neighboring France and the Netherlands also underwent similar fluctuations, implying the positive expectation for the financial innovation and the transatlantic trade. Thirdly, there are reasons to believe that some investment was made on a rational basis. The 'riding' on the bubble and the good performance of the slave trade by the South Sea Company lend support to this argument. Finally, despite contemporary criticism, Walpole skillfully managed to clear away the bewildering state of confusion within a short period of time. Public anxiety was eased, the demand of the landed elites for prohibitively regulative measures was effectively evaded, and the public credit was recovered. The impact of the bubble was contained in a minimal scale. Moreover, Walpole’s emphasis on the rule of law and property rights contributed to the virtual completion of the civil revolution.
참고문헌 (42)
- House of Commons, "The Sixth Session of the First Parliament of King George I", The History and Proceedings of the House of Commons, 1660-1743, 6
- House of Lords, "The History and the Proceedings of the House of Lords, with the Debates and Protests therein, from the Accession of King George the First", Anno 6. Geo I, ~
- "The Church of England Quarterly Review", ~ (1850)
- Brewer, John, "The Sinews of Power : War, Money and the English State, 1688-1783" (1988), Harvard University Press
- Carswell, John, "The South Sea Bubble" (1960), Cresset Press
- Dale, Richard, "The First Crash : Lessons from the South Sea Bubble" (2004), Princeton University Press
- Dickson, Peter G. M., "The Financial Revolution in England : A Study in the Development of Public Credit, 1688-1756" (1967), Macmillan
- Eltis, David, "The Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade : A Database on CD-ROM" (1999), Cambridge University Press
- Hoppit, Julian, "The Land of Liberty? England 1689-1727" (2000), Oxford University Press
- Kindleberger, Charles P., "Manias, Panics and Crashes : A History of Financial Crisis" (2005), John Wiley & Sons
- MacKay, Charles, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" (1841), Richard Bentley
- Neal, Larry, "The Rise of Financial Capitalism: International Capital Markets in the Age of Reason" (1990), Cambridge University Press
- Neal, Larry, "I Am Not Master of Events" (2012), Yale University Press
- Paul, Helen J., "The South Sea Bubble : An Economic History of Its Origins and Consequences" (2010), Routledge
- Plumb, J. H., "Sir Robert Walpole : The Making of a Statesman" (1956), Cresset
- Porter, Roy, "English Society in the Eighteenth Century" (1984), Penguin
- Scott, William R., "The Constitution and Finance of English, Scottish and Irish Joint-Stock Companies to 1720" (1912), Cambridge University Press
- Shiller, Robert J., "Irrational Exuberance" (2000), Princeton University Press
- Sperling, John G., "The South Sea Company : An Historical Essay and Bibliographical Finding List" (1967), Harvard University Press
- Wennerlind, Carl, "Casualties of Credit : The English Financial Revolution" (2011), Harvard University Press
- 이내주, "서양 무기의 역사" (2006), 살림
- Carlos, Ann M., "The Micro-Foundations of the Early London Capital Market: Bank of England Shareholders During and After the South Sea Bubble 1720-1725", Economic History Review, 59, pp.498~538 (2006)
- Cochrane, John H., "Review of Famous First Bubbles", Journal of Political Economy, 109, pp.1150~1154 (2001)
- Dale, Richard S., "Financial Markets Can Go Mad: Evidence of Irrational Behavior During the South Sea Bubble", Economic History Review, 58, pp.233~271 (2005)
- Eltis, David, "A new assessment of the transatlantic slave trade, In Extending the Frontiers: Essays on the New Transatlantic Slave Trade Database", pp.1~60 (2008), Yale University Press
- Frehen, Rik G. P., "New Evidence on the First Financial Bubble", Journal of Financial Economics, 108, pp.585~607 (2013)
- Garber, Peter M., "Famous First Bubbles", Journal of Economics Perspectives, 4, pp.35~54 (1990)
- Haines, Robin, "Mortality and Voyage Length in the Middle Passage Revisited", Explorations in Economic History, 38, pp.503~533 (2001)
- Harris, Ron, "The Bubble Act: Its Passage and Its Effects on Business Organization", Journal of Economic History, 54, pp.610~627 (1994)
- Harrison, Paul, "Rational Equity Valuation at the Time of the South Sea Bubble", History of Political Economy, 33, pp.269~281 (2001)
- Harrison, Paul, "What Can We Learn for Today from 300-Year-Old Writings about Stock Markets?", History of Political Economy, 36, pp.667~688 (2004)
- Hoppit, Julian, "The Myths of the South Sea Bubble", Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, 12, pp.141~165 (2002)
- Horsefield, J. K., "‘The Stop of Exchequer’ Revisited", Economic History Review, 35, pp.511~528 (1982)
- North, D. C., "Constitutions and Commitment: the Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England", Journal of Economic History, 49, pp.803~832 (1989)
- Patterson, Margaret, "The Effect of the Bubble Act on the Market for Joint Stock Shares", Journal of Economic History, 50, pp.163~171 (1990)
- Paul, Helen J., "The South Sea Company’s Slaving Activities", Economic History Society Annual Conference (2004)
- Paul, Helen J., "Limiting the Witch-Hunt: Recovering from the South Sea Bubble", Centre for Economic Policy Research, 4th International Conference of Past, Present and Policy (2011)
- Peter, Temin, "Riding the South Sea Bubble", American Economic Review, 94(5), pp.1655~1668 (2004)
- Richardson, David, "The Costs of Survival: the Transport of Slaves in the Middle Passage and the Profitability of the 18th-Century British Trade", Explorations in Economic History, 24, pp.178~196 (1987)
- 송병건, "19세기 주식회사제도 도입의 지연 요인", 영국연구, (19), pp.187~211 (2008), 영국사학회
- 이내주, "군사혁명의 시대: 무기와 전술의 발전, 1560-1780", 국방과 기술, (302), pp.64~71 (2004)
- 조남영, "1720년 영국 남해회사거품(South Sea Bubble)에 관한 연구", 석사, 경제학과 경제학전공, pp.2012