미국 주정부의 조세 및 지출한도제도의 채무부담에 관한 효과분석
An Analysis of the Impact of State Tax and Expenditure Limitations on Indebtedness in the U. S.
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본 연구는 1978년부터 2011년까지의 패널자료를 활용하여 미국 주정부의 조세 및 지출한도제도(Tax and Expenditure Limitations: TELs)가 채무수준에 미친 영향을 살펴보았다. 조세 및 지출한도제도의 도입 여부뿐만 아니라 한도제의 강도를 나타내는 지수를 포함하여 채무유형별로 분석한 결과에 의하면, 조세 및 지출한도를 도입하거나 강도가 높을수록 일반보증채무가 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 수익채무의 경우는 조세 및 지출한도제도의 측정방법에 따라 결과가 다르게 나타났는데 수입만을 제한하는 경우에는 증가하였고 제한의 강도가 높을수록 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 수입 및 지출에 대한 제한을 동시에 부과한 경우에는 채무유형에 상관없이 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과를 종합하면 조세와 지출한도제도의 목적을 달성하고 회피수단을 제공하지 않기 위해서는 한도설정 대상에 모든 수입과 지출을 포함하고 수입과 지출에 대한 한도를 동시에 적용할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study examines the impact of the adoption and restrictiveness of the Tax and Expenditure Limits(TELs) on the level of debt using a panel dataset of 47 U.S. states from 1978 to 2011. The analysis shows that the adoption of TELs or more restrictive TELs increased General Obligation debt. In terms of the impact on revenue debt, revenue focused TELs increased debt, but the restrictiveness of TELs has a negative effect on the level of debt. In addition, states with TELs that limit both revenues and expenditures have lower levels of General Obligation and revenue debt. The study results suggest that one include all types of revenues and expenditures and place restrictions on both revenues and expenditures in designing more effective TELs.
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