보통교부세 기준재정수입액 추계 오류와 정산의 재원 배분효과 분석

Abstract

Through analyzing forecasting errors of standard fiscal revenue of general share tax and the settlement process, this paper presents that even if the forecasted amounts are settled, allocations of general share tax may be distorted, and proposes a settlement method to overcome this. The main findings through the analysis of the settlement process of the forecasting errors are as follows. First, the standard fiscal revenues are, on average, under-forecasted, compared to the settlement amount, but the variations among forecasting items, among years, and among local governments are very large. Second, in order to prevent a fiscal shock to local governments, more than half of the local governments are settled in divisions, but consistency in division cannot be confirmed. This means that the central government can arbitrarily adjust the allocations of general share tax. Based on these findings, it is suggested that the allocations of general share tax can be distorted by the relationship between forecasting errors and the general share tax adjustment rate by modeling forecasting errors and the settlement process. Specifically, if the adjustment rate is higher at settlement year than at forecasting year, local governments where the standard fiscal revenue is overestimated, would be allocated general share tax larger than the appropriate level, while those where it is underestimated would be allocated general share tax less than the appropriate level. Finally, in order to prevent the distortion of the general share tax allocation, it derives a method to dualize adjustment rates applied to the fiscal deficits of current year and to the settlement amounts of the previous year, and proposes to combine the method with the operation of the fiscal stabilization fund to improve the fiscal autonomy of local government.