보통교부세 산정에서 정산에 관한 연구: 재원 및 기준재정수입액 추계 오차의 정산에 관하여

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of two types of forecasting errors and their ex post settlement process on the allocation of the local share tax (LST) and suggests a new LST allocation formula to correct the distortion in the LST allocation caused by the settlement process. Using a three periods model for LST allocation, we find that the effect of the settlement of forecasting errors of local governments’ standard fiscal revenues on the LST allocation is caused by the difference in the adjustment ratios among periods, while the effect of the settlement of forecasting errors of LST funds on the LST allocation comes from the difference in the fiscal insufficiency ratio of local governments among periods. To correct the distortion in the LST allocation, we propose a new allocation formula under which the LST funds for the settlement of forecasting errors is separated from the funds allocated based on current year’s fiscal insufficiency. In this case, the funds for the settlement of forecasting errors is allocated to each local government according to the allocation criteria of the years in which the errors were occurred.