중국의 핵개발에 대한 미국의 비확산 정책: 북핵(北核) 문제에 주는 함의
Washington’s Counter-Measures against Beijing’s Nuclear Weaponization: Implications for North Korean Nuclear Issue
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초록
본 논문은 이미 핵무기를 보유한 북한에 대하여 미국이 어떠한 정책을 구사할 것인가를 과거 유사한 중국의 핵개발 사례를 통하여 유추해 보고자 하였다. 중국이 핵을 개발하던 1950년대~1960년대 당시 미국은 국제협약을 체결하여 평화적으로 해결하려는 노력부터 군사적인 타격 계획까지 검토하였고 소련을 통하여 회유하는 방법까지 사용하였다. 이것은 북한의 핵개발 과정에서 미국이 보여준 여러 정책들과 흡사한 모양이었으나 모두 실패하였다. 이 교훈을 상기하며 한국입장에서 최악의 시나리오를 상정하며 미국의 대북 비핵화 정책의 변화 전망과 함께 한국의 적극적인 정책 추진을 촉구한다.
Abstract
This paper intends infer what the US will do with North Korea who already succeeded in possessing nuclear weapons from the past China's nuclear development case. During the 1950s to 1960s, when China was developing nuclear weapons, US took various counter-measures to block China’s nuclear development. Not only did US consider international efforts to resolve peacefully by signing international agreements for non-proliferation, but also US considered military attack in cooperation with the Soviet Union against China’s effort for weaponization. This was very similar to the policy US exercised against North Korea's nuclear development. In the end, however, all Washington’s policies failed. Recalling this lessons, This paper will suggest South Korea need to prepare aggressive policies for the worst case of US possible policy toward North Korea denuclearization.
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