중장기 장비유지비 추정 및 전망 방법 연구
Research on Mid-to Long-term Equipment Maintenance Cost Estimation and Forecasting Methods
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초록
장비 자본스톡과 장비유지비는 밀접한 관계를 가진다. 장비유지비의 장비 자본스톡에 대한 탄력성을 추정하기 위해 장비유지비, 장비 자본스톡 변수의 단위근 검정을 하고, 그 후 장비유지비와 장비 자본스톡 변수 간에 공적분 관계가 있는지를 검정하여 공적분을 추정하였다. 분석 결과를 요약하면 장기적으로 장비유지비의 장비스톡 대비 탄력성은 1 안팎이라는 점이다. 본 연구는 중장기 장비유지비를 추정하는 새로운 방법을 제시함으로써 그 의미가 있다.
Abstract
Equipment maintenance costs are a means of ensuring the operation rate of equipment so that the maximum capabilities of existing combat power can be utilized. Predicting mid-to long-term requirements by analyzing the operational performance of equipment maintenance costs and reflecting appropriate equipment maintenance costs is the key to combat readiness. Equipment capital stock and equipment maintenance costs are closely related. To estimate the elasticity of equipment maintenance cost to equipment capital stock, a uin root test was first conducted. Next, we tested whether there was a cointegration relationship between equipment maintenance costs and equipment stock variables, and estimated cointegration. To summarize the analysis results, the elasticity of equipment maintenance costs compared to equipment is close to 1. This study is significant because it presents a new method for estimating mid-to long-term equipment maintenance costs.