공군 전투임무기의 대당 연간 장비유지비 추정 연구
Study on Maintenance Cost Estimating Relationships for Air Force Fighter Aircraft
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 개별 전투임무기에 대한 체계적 분석에 초점을 두어 장비유지비 추정관계식을 개발하고자 한다. 이를 위해 정비와 관련된 문서와 정보체계 원천자료를 수집하여, 8개 전투임무기 기종에 대해 분석을 수행하였다. 다양한 변수와 대상기간을 조합하여 30개의 회귀분석 모델을 8개 기종별로 생성하고, 두 가지 평가척도(, MAPE) 측면에서 Diebold-Mariano 검정을 실시하여 쌍대 비교하였다. 그리고 기종별로 효과적 장비유지비 추정을 위해, 평가척도 분석 결과를 토대로 성능이 우수한 회귀모델을 제시하였다.
Abstract
In the environment of procuring various high-tech weapon systems, maintenance budget grew at an annual rate of 6.5 percent for last fourteen years(2008-2021). The rate is much higher than the growth rate of the other operating & support budget, 3.9 percent. In particular, aircraft maintenance budget were increasing more steeply with 7.0 percent because more new aircraft are procured and maintenance policy is highly regulated and safety critical. This study aims to develop maintenance cost estimating relationships for creating analytic application on Air Force fighter aircraft individually. Utilizing the budget documentations and information systems related to maintenance, 8 fighter aircraft operated from 1988 to 2019 are analyzed. Thirty regression models created for each aircraft by combining various variables and data periods are compared using Diebold-Mariano test with two criteria of and MAPE. Maintenance cost estimation of an individual aircraft is important for setting budgets and for deciding when to replace aging systems. In addition, results from this study provide insight on when to start using actual O&S costs as a baseline for estimates in lieu of an analogous aircraft that has no sufficient cost data.
참고문헌 (15)
- 박종재, "무기체계별 적정수명 및 도태 후 활용방안 연구" (2018), 국방부
- 모수 추정법 기반의 운영유지비 추정 모델 개발 결과 보고서, "이동호", 국방과학연구소, ~ (2021)
- 장기덕, "무기체계의 합리적인 정비유지비 산출" (1999), 한국국방연구원
- 조지훈, "공군의 미래 증가전력을 고려한 장비유지 예산 판단" (2015), 합동군사대학
- CAPE, "Operating And Support Cost-Estimating Guide" (2014), CAPE
- CAPE, "Operating And Support Cost-Estimating Guide" (2020), CAPE
- Crippen, D. L, "The Effects of Aging on the Costs of Operating and Maintaining Military Equipment" (2001), CBO
- Diebold, F. X, "Comparing Predictive Accuracy", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(3), pp.253~263 (1995), Taylor & Francis
- Dixon, M, "The Maintenance Costs of Aging Aircraft" (2006), RAND
- Hall, K, "Operating Costs of Aging Air Force Aircraft" (2018), CBO
- Hewitson, S. C, "Analyzing Operating and Support Costs for Air Force Aircraft", Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 2(1), pp.38~54 (2018), Emerald Publishing
- Hildebrandt, G. G, "An estimation of USAF Aircraft Operating and Support Cost Relations" (1990), RAND
- Mislick, G. K, "Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools" (2015), John Wiley & Sons
- Ryan, E, "Characterizing the accuracy of DoD operating and support cost estimates", Journal of Public Procurement, 13(1), pp.103~132 (2013), Emerald Publishing
- Stoll, L, "Aircraft Aging Effect on Individual Operating and Support Cost Elements" (1993), NAMO