항만 물동량과 지역경기의 인과관계: VAR 접근

Abstract

Most of local governments have been doing their utmost to increase their porttraffic volumes since more cargo volume is believed to lead to higher regionalbusiness activity and lower unemployment. There is, however, no concrete evidencethat the increase of cargo volumes should contribute to activating regional economy. This paper, hence, analyses whether there is a causal relationship between port cargovolume and regional economy using the VAR approaches, which include the forecasterror variance decompositions, historical decompositions, and impulse responsefunctions. The monthly data cover the period from 1995 to 2012. The forecast errorvariance decomposition shows that cargo volumes have a great impact on regionaleconomies in Busan, Incheon, and Gangwon, while the economies like Kyunggi,Gyungnam, and Gyungbuk are not almost affected by their cargo volumes. Thecargo volumes of Jeonnam and Jeonbuk have only a weak effect on the theireconomies. This paper, furthermore, finds out that the response of regional economiesto the cargo volume impulse is by far the highest in Busan of the ten regions andthat of Gyunggi, Choongna, and Gyungbuk is relatively very low.