국제해운시장과 국내 지역경제변수의 연관성 분석 - 부산·울산·경남지역을 중심으로 -
Impact of International Shipping Market on Domestic Regional Economy - Focused on Busan, Ulsan and Gyungnam -
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초록
This study implemented Granger causality analysis, impact response analysis and variance decomposition analysis in order to find relationship between the BDI and the economic situation of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyungnam region, using the data of the sample period between January 2006 and March 2013. Major findings are as follows: First, the BDI Granger-caused the industrial production index, the export and the import of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyungnam region, but not vice versa. However, the BDI index did not affect the regional employment rate. Second, the impact response analysis showed that the effect of one unit change of the BDI on the regional industrial production index lasted about 4 months. Its impact on the export and the import was found to last 3-4 months and 3-6 months, respectively. Third, the variance decomposition analysis found that the BDI, on average, explained 5 percent of the variation of the industrial production index, the export and the import of the region. In conclusion, the BDI seems to be a useful leading indicator of the economic situation of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyungnamregion.
Abstract
This study implemented Granger causality analysis, impact response analysis and variance decomposition analysis in order to find relationship between the BDI and the economic situation of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyungnam region, using the data of the sample period between January 2006 and March 2013. Major findings are as follows: First, the BDI Granger-caused the industrial production index, the export and the import of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyungnam region, but not vice versa. However, the BDI index did not affect the regional employment rate. Second, the impact response analysis showed that the effect of one unit change of the BDI on the regional industrial production index lasted about 4 months. Its impact on the export and the import was found to last 3-4 months and 3-6 months, respectively. Third, the variance decomposition analysis found that the BDI, on average, explained 5 percent of the variation of the industrial production index, the export and the import of the region. In conclusion, the BDI seems to be a useful leading indicator of the economic situation of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyungnamregion.
참고문헌 (17)
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