파나마운하 확장에 따른 글로벌 운송경로 경쟁력 분석
Competitiveness Analysis on Global Transportation Route in view of the Panama Canal Expansion
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초록
본 연구는 파나마운하의 확장 공사가 완료된 이후 파나마운하경유 경로, 수에즈운하경유 경로 그리고 북미 복합운송경로를 대상으로 항로경쟁력을 분석해 보는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 운송경로별 운송거리, 운송시간, 운송비용 분석을 수행하였고, 나아가 향후 파나마운하의 경쟁력에 영향을 미칠 벙커유가격과 운하통행료에 따른 민감도분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 거리와 시간 측면에서 아시아항만들의 경우 미국 복합운송경로를 이용하는 것이 해상운송경로를 이용하는 것에 비해 유리한 반면, 운송비용측면에서는 수에즈운하를 경유하는 경로가 가장 경쟁력이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 민감도 분석결과, 파나마운하는 벙커유가격이 상승할수록 그리고 통행료 인상폭이 커질수록 타 운송경로에 대해 경쟁력이 약화되는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the Asia - U. S East coast route competitiveness among Panama canal route, Suez canal route and U. S intermodal route(America mini-landbridge) in view of the Panama canal expansion. To achieve this aim, distance analysis, transit time analysis and unit transport cost analysis was conducted. Furthermore, this study also conducted sensitivity analysis on the increase of bunker price and Panama toll fee. The results show that U. S intermodal route is more competitive than Panama and Suez canal routes in distance and transit time. However, in terms of unit transport cost, in terms of TEU, Suez canal route is the most competitive among three routes. And the results of scenario and sensitivity analysis reveal that the competitiveness of Panama canal route is getting worse when bunker price and Panama canal toll fee are higher. Furthermore, the continuous upsizing of containership will have negative effect on Panama canal's competitiveness in spite of canal expansion.
참고문헌 (30)
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