유라시아 鐵道經路와 國際海運經路의 時系列的 競爭力에 關한 硏究

Abstract

This study analyzes the competitiveness of international multimodal transport by comparing the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) with all modes of water transport between Busan Port and European inland cities, using various methodologies including tariff rates, transit times, and interviews. as well as data collected through interviews were used in the study. This is the first study to adopt a dynamic time series analysis, by reviewing historical data for 1998, 2005, and 2013, unlike earlier studies that analyzed international modal transport choice in the Eurasian continent without specific timeframes. Interview method for an international freight forwarder, SJ Logistics Group, was adopted to supplement the study. The study’s findings are as follows. First, from Busan, the TSR route tariff rate for Moscow and Hamburg port increased approximately 1.6 times between 1998 and 2013, but the corresponding transit time fell by 30%. By contrast, the international sea transport tariff rate fell by 30%, whereas the transit time increased by 35%. These findings imply that the TSR is competitive in terms of service quality in transit time, and the international sea transport mode, in terms of price. Three facts support this conclusion. First, the TSR tariff rate has increased significantly since 2006. Second, the international sea transport mode can absorb the rate hike factors by mega-carrier trends, the keen competition among shipping companies. Finally, marine freight demand has remained below its lowest level owing to the decline and oversupply of shipping services since 2008. The second finding is that the iso-competitive line between the TSR and all the water transport modes shows significant variability in the time series for the Moscow line (1998), Munich-Budapest line (2005), and Nizhny novogorod line (2013; 1,000km east from Moscow). Third, the variability of this iso-competitive line is dependent upon the tariff rates of international liner ships, mega-carrier trends, keen service competition among shipping companies, and TSR transit times and service levels. Therefore, Eurasian continental shippers between Korea and West European cities (ranging from Moscow to harbor port cities such as Rotterdam and Hamburg), should receive correct information on tariffs and services, such as data on service reliability, safety, custom clearance, and wagon supply. Finally, the modal choice of the Eurasian continental relies on tariff rates, transit times, and customer service. The TSR improved its transit time considerably, although it increased its tariff rates. Therefore, selecting the TSR mode would mitigate the port congestion problem in Far Eastern ports such as Vladivostok, Vostochny, and Nakhodka; address the wagon shortage in peak season; simplify clearance issuance and administrative procedures; control volatility caused by unilateral rate hikes without advance notice; and improve the standard of service in the pilferage, loss, and cargo information system. The limitation of this study is that service reliability and safety were not taken into account in the international multi-modal choice model.