소규모 개방경제에서 일자리보장제의 거시경제 효과 분석 : 저량-유량 일관 모형(SFCM)
A Study on the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy from the Perspective of Post Keynesian and Neo-Schumpeterian Economics
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초록
본 논문은 저량-유량 일관모형(Stock-Flow Consistent Model; SFCM)을 이용하여 소규모 개방경제모형을 구축하고 시뮬레이션을 통해 전통적인 확장재정정책과 일자리보장제 도입의 거시경제 효과를 비교 분석한다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전통적 재정정책이 일자리보장제보다 경제부양 효과가 크게 나타난다. 둘째, 일자리보장제는 확장적 재정정책보다 높은 물가상승을 유발한다. 셋째, 소득분배의 관점에서 일자리보장제는 노동친화적이지만, 확장적 재정정책은 자본친화적이거나 중립적이다. 마지막으로 일자리보장제가 전통적 재정정책보다 정부재정을 악화시킨다. 이들 결과는 선행연구의 연구 성과를 상당부분 지지한다. 기존 연구와 달리, 본 논문은 구조적 개방경제 성장모형을 통해 일자리보장제의 경제적 영향을 동학적으로 분석했다는 측면에서 의의가 있다.
Abstract
This paper establishes a small open economy model based on the Stock-Flow Consistent Model (SFCM) and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the traditional expansionary fiscal policy and the job guarantee program through simulations. The simulation results are as follows. First, the traditional fiscal policy has larger positive effects on economic growth than the job guarantee program. Second, the job guarantee program causes higher inflation than the expansionary fiscal policy. Third, from the perspective of income distribution, the job guarantee program is more labor-friendly, while the expansionary fiscal policy is more capital-friendly (in the short-term) or neutral. Finally, the job guarantee program worsens the government’s budget account compared to the conventional fiscal policy. These results are consistent with the findings of previous studies. Unlike previous studies, this paper is unique in that it dynamically analyzes the economic impacts of the job guarantee program through the structural growth model in an small open economy.
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