고위당정회의 의제 변화에 관한 연구
A Study on the Issue Transition of the High Level Party-Executive Council
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이 글은 1985-2010년까지 고위당정회의에서 다루어졌던 총 397건의 안건들을 정당이 선호하는 의제와 정부가 선호하는 의제로 유형화한 다음, 두 유형의 구성비 변화를 계량 분석함으로써 당정간의 역학관계가 어떻게 변화해 왔는지를 연구하였다. 정당 영향력의 시간적 변화를 설명할 독립변수로는 민주화와 정당이념 두 가지를 상정했다. 의제유형 분류는 베렐손(Berelson) 등이 제시한 포지션 이슈(position issue)와 스타일 이슈(style issue)로 나누는 이분법 모형을 사용했다. ‘민주화 및 정당이념’이라는 독립변수와 ‘의제구성의 변화’라는 종속변수 사이의 매개변수로는 정당의 자율성(autonomy)과 반응성(responsiveness) 두 가지로 설정했다. 통계기법은 카이제곱 검증법을 사용하였다. 분석결과, 민주화 이후 포지션 이슈의 비율이 증가했음이 확인되었다. 민주화가 정당의 자율성과 반응성을 증가시킴으로써 정당의 이슈선호(issue preference)가 당정회의 의제선정에 반영된 결과로 해석된다. 또 정당이념과의 관계에서는 보수정부보다 진보정부 시기에 포지션 이슈의 상정비율이 높게 나왔는데, 정당이념 자체 때문이라기보다 정당의 자율성 문제 때문인 것으로 해석되었다.
Abstract
By classifying the 397 issues handled at the high level party-executive council between the years 1985 and 2010 into issues preferred by the ruling party or the executive, this paper statistically analyzes the transition in the dynamics of their relationship by studying the ratio change. In order to explain the time variance of party influence, democratization and party ideology were chosen as independent variables. Berelson’s theory was used to classify the issues into position issues and style issues. The autonomy and responsiveness of the parties were designated as parameters between the independent variable, ““democratization and party ideology,”” and the dependent variable, ““change in the issue composition.”Results from the χχ²² analysis showed significant increase in the ratio of position issues after democratization. This can be interpreted as a result of the party-preferred issues being reflected in the party executive council issue selection following democratization, which has increased the autonomy and responsiveness of parties. In terms of party ideology, the ratio of position issues showed higher values in the liberal government when compared to the conservative government, mainly due to party autonomy rather than the party ideology itself.
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