The Rise of Kim Jong Eun and the Return of the Party

Abstract

As it prepares a new ruling structure to support the 3rd generation power succession, the North Korean regime has recently undergone a dramatic reorganization within its ruling structures, creating an intertwined system of mutual surveillance and control in which a handful of powerful individuals hold overlapping positions in the highest governing bodies of the Party, Cabinet, and military. This reorganization has created confusion within the NDC hierarchy and cast doubt on whether the military-dominated songun system will continue to function, or the Party will reassert its dominance through a return to the traditional party-state system. As the regime currently faces serious challenges on several fronts, the outcome of this military-party power struggle will have major implications for the stability of the new system and its likely future course. This paper will assess the likely future direction of the North Korean governing system based on a review of the evolution of the existing songun system during the previous leadership succession and an analysis of the details of the recent reorganization and its implications for future power dynamics among the governing elites. In light of North Korea’s recent erratic behavior, we will also explore the possibility of a power struggle between the hawks and doves among the elites.