권력승계 시기 북한의 지배구조와 대내외 정책 전망

Abstract

This paper aims to forecast the power structure and the possibility of domestic and foreign policy changes during the period of power transfer (expected within the next five years) in North Korea, after the nomination of Kim Jong-Eun as the next leader via the Party Delegates’ Conference. Though this on-going analysis may be somewhat premature, as the North Korean succession process is in its first stage and the successor’s character and policy orientation remain elusive, it can also produce some meaningful predictions through a review of the process of the Kim Jong-il succession,a comparative analysis of the succession environments of Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-Eun, and the latest moves to rebuild the power structure as well as internal and external policy direction. The main points of this article are as follows. First, Kim Jong-il has only invested Kim Jong-Eun with the title of vice chair of the KWP Central Military Committee due to concerns of excessively hastening the succession plan. However, Kim Jong-Eun’s leadership as successor is expected to expand rapidly in the next few years, proceeding from the military to the party. North Korea will externally publicize his ‘military leadership,’ while placing great emphasis on the political and ideological role of the party to create a favorable environment internally for a successful succession. Kim Jong-Eun’s influence toward the party is expected to increase as well. Second, the policy direction during the period of power transfer in North Korea is expected to carry on based on Fear and Terror domestically and hard-line policy internationally. It is likely that the North will tighten its control policy internally, while North Korean outbursts in order to accentuate Kim Jong-Eun leadership externally are expected to continue repeatedly. Third, it is likely that after his successful succession Kim Jong-Eun may retreat from military-first politics in order to reign in social discontent. But it seems that fundamental reform and opening are unlikely and political instability is expected to swell as a result of the vulnerability of the succession system. Thus, from the medium-term perspective, South Korea’s policy toward the North should be prepared given that various situations may be likely in accordance with the features of power transfer in North Korean succession.