Political Dynamics of Hereditary Succession in North Korea
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This paper analyzes the background, problems and political dynamics related to the hereditary succession currently underway in North Korea. The succession to Kim Jong-un has been prepared amid relatively challenging internal and external conditions. The consolidation of Kim Jong-un’s power should solve three political challenges. The first is to inherit and repackage Kim Jong-il’s power legacy. The second is to reorganize the party-state’s higher power agencies and adapt them to new realities in the country. The third is to build Kim Jong-un’s own personal power base. There are four main structural factors which can influence the future trajectories of political succession and North Korean politics: regime survival and hereditary succession; ruler-state relations; ruler-society relations; relations between foreign powers and domestic actors. The combination of these four structural factors and the four political actors within and without the regime–hard-liners, soft-liners, moderate oppositions and maximalist oppositions–will determine the future trajectories of North Korean politics.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the background, problems and political dynamics related to the hereditary succession currently underway in North Korea. The succession to Kim Jong-un has been prepared amid relatively challenging internal and external conditions. The consolidation of Kim Jong-un’s power should solve three political challenges. The first is to inherit and repackage Kim Jong-il’s power legacy. The second is to reorganize the party-state’s higher power agencies and adapt them to new realities in the country. The third is to build Kim Jong-un’s own personal power base. There are four main structural factors which can influence the future trajectories of political succession and North Korean politics: regime survival and hereditary succession; ruler-state relations; ruler-society relations; relations between foreign powers and domestic actors. The combination of these four structural factors and the four political actors within and without the regime–hard-liners, soft-liners, moderate oppositions and maximalist oppositions–will determine the future trajectories of North Korean politics.
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