North Korean Political Dynamics of the Kim Jong-un Era
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The political dynamics associated with the Kim Jong-un regime have taken a number of twists and turns since the beginning of the third generation leadership transition at the end of 2011. Beginning in 2010 at the Third Party Conference and carrying through the first two years of Kim Jong-un’s rule, the focus was on the revitalization of the Party apparatus. During this period, the purges of the high command began while at the same time the Party leadership bodies witnessed a dramatic growth in representation of military and security personnel. The fusing together of the military and Party leadership appeared to bring stability at the top echelons of the leadership structure — something the young leader would need as he worked to consolidate his power. The next phase of Kim Jong-un’s consolidation process began with the surprising purge and execution of Jang Song-taek at the end of 2013. On the surface, this move by Kim Jong-un appeared highly risky and premature. More recent disclosures suggest that Jang posed an existential threat to Kim’s ability to consolidate his power. Acting pragmatically and swiftly, Kim Jong-un removed the threat and began to transform the political dynamics inside the regime while at the same time assuming the role of the Control Tower. As a consequence, Kim’s personal apparatus has begun to grow and the Supreme Leader’s decision-making patterns and interaction with the inner circle of advisors has begun to reflect his evolving role within the regime. The Seventh Party Congress in May will likely serve as a coronation of the Kim Jong-un era. But whether he will be able to fully consolidate his power remains to be seen.
Abstract
The political dynamics associated with the Kim Jong-un regime have taken a number of twists and turns since the beginning of the third generation leadership transition at the end of 2011. Beginning in 2010 at the Third Party Conference and carrying through the first two years of Kim Jong-un’s rule, the focus was on the revitalization of the Party apparatus. During this period, the purges of the high command began while at the same time the Party leadership bodies witnessed a dramatic growth in representation of military and security personnel. The fusing together of the military and Party leadership appeared to bring stability at the top echelons of the leadership structure — something the young leader would need as he worked to consolidate his power. The next phase of Kim Jong-un’s consolidation process began with the surprising purge and execution of Jang Song-taek at the end of 2013. On the surface, this move by Kim Jong-un appeared highly risky and premature. More recent disclosures suggest that Jang posed an existential threat to Kim’s ability to consolidate his power. Acting pragmatically and swiftly, Kim Jong-un removed the threat and began to transform the political dynamics inside the regime while at the same time assuming the role of the Control Tower. As a consequence, Kim’s personal apparatus has begun to grow and the Supreme Leader’s decision-making patterns and interaction with the inner circle of advisors has begun to reflect his evolving role within the regime. The Seventh Party Congress in May will likely serve as a coronation of the Kim Jong-un era. But whether he will be able to fully consolidate his power remains to be seen.
참고문헌 (21)
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