BEYOND COLLAPSE - CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN NORTH KOREA
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Kim Jong Il faces a politically complex dilemma - pursue change or see his regime collapse. His primary goal is regime survival. Toward this end, he appears to have initiated a program of carefully managed change. He must pursue his program within the context of Juche to avoid alienating Pyongyang’s aging guardians of his father’s legacy. Surprisingly, within this rigid dogma one finds the pragmatism that allows Kim to rationalize change in terms of building a “strong and prosperous nation.” The August 1995 floods and food crisis gave Kim the opportunity to initiate “managed change.” The July 2002 announcement of “economic reforms” suggests Kim Jong Il is less concerned about potential domestic resistance to his program, and more realistic about the extent to which he must pursue change to secure regime survival. But his goal is regime preservation, not its transformation. Democratization is not on his agenda. National defense still tops the regime’s agenda, and dominates its economic priorities. To sustain the changes necessary for regime survival, Kim Jong Il has had to turn to the international community for the resources vital to his programs’ success: money, technology and training. The more Pyongyang needs from the international community, the greater the international community’s ability to influence North Korea’s conduct, and the pace and direction of change inside North Korea. Pyongyang’s October 2002 admission that it has acquired uranium enrichment equipment appears aimed at improving North Korea’s access to scare resources vis a vis negotiations with Washington. The admission was a constructive step, but it cannot compensate for Pyongyang’s breech of the US-DPRK Agreed Framework. Nor can North Korea’s reversion to coercive diplomacy be condoned. Pyongyang’s blunders place the regime’s survival in doubt. Either continued refusal to discard its nuclear weapons program will convince the international community to deny Pyongyang the resources it needs for survival, or North Korea risks war with the United States and its allies.
Abstract
Kim Jong Il faces a politically complex dilemma - pursue change or see his regime collapse. His primary goal is regime survival. Toward this end, he appears to have initiated a program of carefully managed change. He must pursue his program within the context of Juche to avoid alienating Pyongyang’s aging guardians of his father’s legacy. Surprisingly, within this rigid dogma one finds the pragmatism that allows Kim to rationalize change in terms of building a “strong and prosperous nation.” The August 1995 floods and food crisis gave Kim the opportunity to initiate “managed change.” The July 2002 announcement of “economic reforms” suggests Kim Jong Il is less concerned about potential domestic resistance to his program, and more realistic about the extent to which he must pursue change to secure regime survival. But his goal is regime preservation, not its transformation. Democratization is not on his agenda. National defense still tops the regime’s agenda, and dominates its economic priorities. To sustain the changes necessary for regime survival, Kim Jong Il has had to turn to the international community for the resources vital to his programs’ success: money, technology and training. The more Pyongyang needs from the international community, the greater the international community’s ability to influence North Korea’s conduct, and the pace and direction of change inside North Korea. Pyongyang’s October 2002 admission that it has acquired uranium enrichment equipment appears aimed at improving North Korea’s access to scare resources vis a vis negotiations with Washington. The admission was a constructive step, but it cannot compensate for Pyongyang’s breech of the US-DPRK Agreed Framework. Nor can North Korea’s reversion to coercive diplomacy be condoned. Pyongyang’s blunders place the regime’s survival in doubt. Either continued refusal to discard its nuclear weapons program will convince the international community to deny Pyongyang the resources it needs for survival, or North Korea risks war with the United States and its allies.