North Korea in Transition: Changes in Internal Politics and the Logic of Survival
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The denuclearization of North Korea is a remote possibility. The significance of the nuclear program for North Korea (as a deterrent, diplomatic instrument, and propaganda tool) demonstrates that the gains of North Korea from denuclearization will be small compared to the advantages created by the nuclear program. The international community (above all the U.S.) has no significant leverage when it comes to dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. Sanctions (if not sabotaged by China or Russia) will likely lead to another famine, but will not start a revolution; possible incentives are not sufficient either. The only possible compromise might include the tacit recognition of the nuclear status of North Korea, but such compromise is not acceptable (and probably not advisable) from the U.S. perspective. This article argues that years of difficult but fruitless negotiations lay ahead. Only the eventual collapse of the Kim family regime will result in a dramatic change in the North Korean attitude to nuclear weapons.
Abstract
The denuclearization of North Korea is a remote possibility. The significance of the nuclear program for North Korea (as a deterrent, diplomatic instrument, and propaganda tool) demonstrates that the gains of North Korea from denuclearization will be small compared to the advantages created by the nuclear program. The international community (above all the U.S.) has no significant leverage when it comes to dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. Sanctions (if not sabotaged by China or Russia) will likely lead to another famine, but will not start a revolution; possible incentives are not sufficient either. The only possible compromise might include the tacit recognition of the nuclear status of North Korea, but such compromise is not acceptable (and probably not advisable) from the U.S. perspective. This article argues that years of difficult but fruitless negotiations lay ahead. Only the eventual collapse of the Kim family regime will result in a dramatic change in the North Korean attitude to nuclear weapons.
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