Stalemate and Beyond: The North Korean Nuclear Impasse and Its Future
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Notwithstanding recent efforts by U.S. officials to reopen nuclear dialogue with the DPRK after the death of Kim Jong-il, a variety of factors today coincide to make it very unlikely that there will be meaningful progress in the long-stalled Six-Party Talks on DPRK denuclearization even if they do resume. This, in turn, is likely to accelerate a long-term realignment of regional policies vis-à-vis North Korea. Pyongyang has come to appear – and, after Kim’s death, seems to remain – entirely uninterested in denuclearization, remaining committed to retaining its nuclear weapons programs under essentially any conditions, and having additionally now ensured by its own actions (e.g., its 2006 and 2009 weapons tests and public confirmation of its longstanding uranium enrichment program) that the verification requirements for denuclearization are ones that the DPRK regime would not accept in any event. (Its cross-border provocations in 2010 have also helped harden the attitudes of key outside players toward traditional concessionary diplomacy, though American diplomats seem recently to have taken renewed interest in at least the appearance of negotiating, perhaps in order to forestall political crises during their country’s 2012 election year.) Nor does there seem to be much chance of change in DPRK attitudes, with ongoing leadership consolidation and potential domestic insecurity challenges being likely to push the regime in what are, if anything, more intransigent and conceivably even provocative positions. Meanwhile, domestic political factors in other would-be Six-Party participants during 2012 – including leadership succession issues in almost all the other parties –are likely, on the whole, to encourage attitudes less favorable to resumed nuclear negotiating. Yet this impasse has not stopped the East Asian region from continuing its rapid course of politico-economic change and development – a trajectory in which the DPRK is increasingly irrelevant except as a potential source of instability. (South Korea, in particular, is emerging as an increasingly important and sophisticated player on the world stage, even as the United States seeks to maintain a vigorous and engaged forward regional presence in diplomatic, economic, and military terms.) As East Asia develops a “post-DPRK” political order the security of which cannot be ensured except by ending Pyongyang’s role as a source of disruptive perturbations, regional leaders may increasingly turn to hard-nosed policies of coercive containment, more overt contingency planning for catastrophic collapse scenarios, and even interest in “regime-change” options. The future of DPRK denuclearization, in other words, may lie more in realpolitik pressures and maneuvers than in any meaningful resumption of concessionary diplomacy.
Abstract
Notwithstanding recent efforts by U.S. officials to reopen nuclear dialogue with the DPRK after the death of Kim Jong-il, a variety of factors today coincide to make it very unlikely that there will be meaningful progress in the long-stalled Six-Party Talks on DPRK denuclearization even if they do resume. This, in turn, is likely to accelerate a long-term realignment of regional policies vis-à-vis North Korea. Pyongyang has come to appear – and, after Kim’s death, seems to remain – entirely uninterested in denuclearization, remaining committed to retaining its nuclear weapons programs under essentially any conditions, and having additionally now ensured by its own actions (e.g., its 2006 and 2009 weapons tests and public confirmation of its longstanding uranium enrichment program) that the verification requirements for denuclearization are ones that the DPRK regime would not accept in any event. (Its cross-border provocations in 2010 have also helped harden the attitudes of key outside players toward traditional concessionary diplomacy, though American diplomats seem recently to have taken renewed interest in at least the appearance of negotiating, perhaps in order to forestall political crises during their country’s 2012 election year.) Nor does there seem to be much chance of change in DPRK attitudes, with ongoing leadership consolidation and potential domestic insecurity challenges being likely to push the regime in what are, if anything, more intransigent and conceivably even provocative positions. Meanwhile, domestic political factors in other would-be Six-Party participants during 2012 – including leadership succession issues in almost all the other parties –are likely, on the whole, to encourage attitudes less favorable to resumed nuclear negotiating. Yet this impasse has not stopped the East Asian region from continuing its rapid course of politico-economic change and development – a trajectory in which the DPRK is increasingly irrelevant except as a potential source of instability. (South Korea, in particular, is emerging as an increasingly important and sophisticated player on the world stage, even as the United States seeks to maintain a vigorous and engaged forward regional presence in diplomatic, economic, and military terms.) As East Asia develops a “post-DPRK” political order the security of which cannot be ensured except by ending Pyongyang’s role as a source of disruptive perturbations, regional leaders may increasingly turn to hard-nosed policies of coercive containment, more overt contingency planning for catastrophic collapse scenarios, and even interest in “regime-change” options. The future of DPRK denuclearization, in other words, may lie more in realpolitik pressures and maneuvers than in any meaningful resumption of concessionary diplomacy.
참고문헌 (103)
- "South Korean Consortium Wins UAE Reactor Deal"[URL]
- "Agreed Framework between the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea"[URL]
- "Agreement on Measures to Reduce the Risk of Outbreak of Nuclear War between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics"[URL]
- "Libyan rebels discover Gaddafi’s chemical weapons"[URL]
- Cha, Victor, "China’s Newest Province", New York Times, A29~ (2011)
- "China, Japan, S. Korea vow to strengthen cooperation on disaster management, nuclear safety"[URL]
- "Island’s Naval Base Stirs Opposition in South Korea"[URL]
- "N.Korean Leader Dying of Cancer,Report Says"[URL]
- "U.S. Wary of South Korea’s Plan to Reuse Nuclear Fuel"[URL]
- "CIA Director Hayden Announces Findings on Covert Syrian Reactor"[URL]
- "Constitution of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea"[URL]
- "Constitution of the Republic of Korea (as amended October 29, 1987)"[URL]
- "U.S., North Korea Hold Bilateral Talks"[URL]
- Downs, Chuck, "Over The Line", pp.101~118 (1999), AEI Press
- Dreazen, Yochi J, "Fear that U.S. Can Grab Nuclear Arsenal Heightens Pakistani Anger", National Journal (2011)
- Fackler, Martin, "For Kim’s Heir, Easing Anxiety in Asia Is a Key", New York Times, A1~ (2011)
- "Violent End to an Era as Qaddafi Dies in Libya"[URL]
- "South Korea’s Push for the UAV"[URL]
- "Foreign Ministry Issues Memorandum on N-Issue"[URL]
- "Foreign Ministry Spokesman Denounces U.S. Military Attack on Libya"[URL]
- "U.S.-ROK OPCON Transfer Should Wait"[URL]
- "North Korea Threatens Nuclear Strikes on United States, South Korea"[URL]
- "U.S, North Korea ‘Narrow Differences’ in Geneva Talks"[URL]
- "Grief and Fear", The Economist, 15~ (2011)
- "North Korea condemns South Korea, vows no policy changes"[URL]
- "N. Korea reopens door to food-for-nukes deal with U.S"[URL]
- "Suspected North Korean cyberattack on a bank raises fears for S. Korea, allies"[URL]
- The Hidden Gulag: Exposing North Korea’s Prison Camps, "Hawk, David", U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, ~ (2003)
- "Return Trip to North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex"[URL]
- "What I Found in North Korea"[URL]
- Heilprin, John, "Progress in U.S.-N. Korea talks but no deal" (2011), Associated Press
- "Korea chemical weapons threaten region"[URL]
- "Statement to the Senate Committee on Armed Services"[URL]
- International Atomic Energy Agency, "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, GOV", 2005, pp.2005, ~
- "Model Protocol Additional to the Agreement(s) between State(s) and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards, INFCIRC/540"[URL]
- "The Agency’s Safeguards System, INFCIRC/66 Rev. 2"[URL]
- "The Structure and Content of Agreements between the Agency and States Required in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, INFCIRC/163 (Corrected)"[URL]
- "S. Korean president sees ‘window’ to deal with North"[URL]
- "Joint Calls of Central Committee and Central Military Commission of WPKPublished"[URL]
- "Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of Six-Party Talks"[URL]
- Kahn, Herman, "Thinking about the Unthinkable in the 1980s", pp.193~ (1984), Simon &Schuster
- "Ahmadinejad is Hitler; Sarkozy is a naked emperor"[URL]
- "South Korea defense minister quits after attack"[URL]
- "Lee Myung-bak makes conditional invitation to Kim Jong-il for nuke summit"[URL]
- Klug, Foster, "N. Korea keeps door open for food – Nuke deal with U.S", Associated Press
- "National debt has increase $4 trillion under Obama"[URL]
- Landler, Mark, "In Kim’s Death, an Extensive Intelligence Failure", New York Times, A1~ (2011)
- "North Korean leader and son visited artillery site: reports"[URL]
- "Denuclearize the DPRK: A Dialogue on Radiological Source Security"[URL]
- "Aspen DPRK-USA Dialogue"[URL]
- "Barack Obama and Pentagon split on Afghanistan pullout"[URL]
- "Kim Jong-il birthday overshadowed by health and economic fears"[URL]
- McDonell, Stephen, "North Korea attack linked to leadership succession", ABC News, ~ (2010)
- McGregor, Richard, "The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers", pp.128~129 (2010), HarperCollins
- "North Korea is Said to Weigh Nuclear Test Moratorium"[URL]
- "U.S. and North Korea conclude Geneva Talks"[URL]
- "U.S. and North Korea hold ‘useful’ talks in Geneva"[URL]
- "North Korea denies uranium program: U.S. envoy"[URL]
- "N. Korea ‘Has New Enrichment Facility’"[URL]
- "N. Korea has world’s largest artillery force"[URL]
- "N. Korea says policy won’t change"[URL]
- "N. Korea still Expects Payment for Summit"[URL]
- "North Korea threatens ‘a sea of fire’ upon South Korea"[URL]
- "N. Korea to expel U.N. nuclear inspectors"[URL]
- "North Korea vows not to deal with South Korea’s president"[URL]
- "Nuclear Threat Initiative, Country Profile: North Korea"[URL]
- "Joint Remarks"[URL]
- "Obama says ready to talk to Iran"[URL]
- "Pakistan Dismisses Report on Lax Warhead Security"[URL]
- "Pakistan’s nuclear weapons vulnerable to theft, alleges report"[URL]
- "Peaceful Offensive Following Kim Il Sung’s Three Wishes", Tongil News, ~ (2010)
- Pennington, Matthew, "New U.S. envoy seasoned in nuclear diplomacy but faces tall order in getting N. Korea to disarm" (2011), Associated Press
- Perrett, Bradley, "Leaping Forward", pp.34~ (2011), Aviation Week & Space Technology
- "South Korea’s Nuclear Experiments"[URL]
- "The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program"[URL]
- "Behind the Koreas’ Artillery Fire: Kim’s Succession"[URL]
- "Progress in U.S. – N. Korea talks but no deal on resuming full nuclear negotiations"[URL]
- "Mullen: Pakistan’s Spy Agency Supported Attacks on Americans"[URL]
- Ramstad, Evan, "Positioning Accelerates for 2012 Elections", Wall Street Journal, 2011, ~
- "Report: N. Korea agrees to suspend uranium enrichment"[URL]
- "Republic of Korea, Ministry of National Defense"[URL]
- "ROK-DPRK Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula"[URL]
- Romney for President, "An American Century: A Strategy to Secure America’s Enduring Interests and Ideals", ~ (2011)
- "Japan Politics ‘Chaos’ with Kan Resignation Vow"[URL]
- "U.S. Secretly Aids Pakistan in Guarding Nuclear Arms"[URL]
- "S. Korean, Japanese FMs set for talks on N. Korea, bilateral ties"[URL]
- "Iran may have sent Libya shells for chemical weapons"[URL]
- "South Korea’s Emerging Global Security Role"[URL]
- "South Korea rocket ‘explodes’ moments after takeoff"[URL]
- "Talk between Kim Jong-il and Chinese Premier Wen", Tongil News, ~ (2010)
- "Tension grows as U.S. ‘Back in Asia’"[URL]
- "Daily press briefing"[URL]
- "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons"[URL]
- "U.S., Australia Agree to Military Force Deployment"[URL]
- "Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments"[URL]
- U.S.Department of State, "Documents on Disarmament: 1945-1959" (1960), Department of State Historical Office
- "U.S. Embassy Cables: Kim Jong-il’s Power Weakens after Stroke"[URL]
- "U.S., S. Korea delay OPCON transfer until 2015"[URL]
- "South Korean Reprocessing: An Unnecessary Threat to the Nonproliferation Regime"[URL]
- Wong, Edward, "China Exerts Influence Nurtured Over Decades", New York Times, A11~ (2011)
- "Public Understanding of Nuclear Security Summit"[URL]
- "South Korean economy bounces back despite the politics"[URL]