THE NUCLEAR IMPASSE ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME
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The revelation that North Korea has been secretly enriching uranium for nuclear weapons in violation of its international commitments has thrown the Korean peninsula into crisis. The sunshine policy of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung has been undermined, but the Bush administration’s hard-line expressed in the “axis of evil” speech has also come in for criticism. At the root of the current crisis is the failure of all sides to face up to the fundamental security issues. Hard-liners in the U.S. and the South should reconsider their desires for rapid regime change in the North in light of its catastrophic consequences. The interaction between reform in the North and easing of its security situation needs to be more clearly recognized. Analysis of policy options to reverse the North’s nuclear programs shows that use of military force is much too costly and damaging to regional security. And that isolation and sanctions alone will not stop the North from acquiring nuclear weapons. In the long run, the way to get the North to truly abandon its nuclear programs is not to isolate it further or try to buy it off only with economic aid, but to establish security cooperation in which all sides will have their security concerns addressed.
Abstract
The revelation that North Korea has been secretly enriching uranium for nuclear weapons in violation of its international commitments has thrown the Korean peninsula into crisis. The sunshine policy of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung has been undermined, but the Bush administration’s hard-line expressed in the “axis of evil” speech has also come in for criticism. At the root of the current crisis is the failure of all sides to face up to the fundamental security issues. Hard-liners in the U.S. and the South should reconsider their desires for rapid regime change in the North in light of its catastrophic consequences. The interaction between reform in the North and easing of its security situation needs to be more clearly recognized. Analysis of policy options to reverse the North’s nuclear programs shows that use of military force is much too costly and damaging to regional security. And that isolation and sanctions alone will not stop the North from acquiring nuclear weapons. In the long run, the way to get the North to truly abandon its nuclear programs is not to isolate it further or try to buy it off only with economic aid, but to establish security cooperation in which all sides will have their security concerns addressed.