지역통합의 무역전환효과-동아시아와 미주지역의 비교
Trade Diversion Effects of Regional Integration: East Asia versus the Americas
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본 논문은 응용일반균형모형을 사용하여 동아시아 및 미주대륙에서의 13개 지역통합 시나리오의 무역전환효과, 개방이익(GDP 및 후생증가)의 전환효과와 산업별 생산의 전환효과를 계산하고 시사점을 도출하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 동아시아와 미주대륙 지역주의의 모든 시나리오에서 무역창출효과가 무역전환효과를 압도한다. (2) 동아시아 시나리오의 무역전환효과가 미주 시나리오의 경우보다 작다. 즉, 동아시아에서의 지역무역협정 체결이 다자주의 세계질서에 미치는 부정적 영향이 미주지역에서의 부정적 영향보다 작다. (3) GDPㆍ후생의 전환효과 계산결과, 동아시아와 미주 지역주의가 다자주의에 미치는 차별성은 더 확대된다. (4) ASEAN+3가 동아시아에서 가장 자연스럽게 형성되고 있는 무역지역 형태이다. (5) 동아시아 지역통합이 다자주의 자유무역질서와 조화할 수 있는 반면, 미주대륙에서의 지역주의의 발전은 이를 손상시킬 수 있다. (6) 일본, 한국, 중국 및 아세안을 중심으로 제조업 특히 부품 및 중간재 부문에서 이루어지고 있는 동아시아의 수직적 생산ㆍ유통 네트워크의 발전이 동아시아와 미주의 차별적 역외전환효과 발생의 원인이며, 또한 ASEAN+3가 동아시아 자연무역지대의 지향점인 이유이다.
Abstract
This paper estimates the diversion effects of trade, GDP and welfare of the regional integration scenarios in East Asia and the Americas, using the applied general equilibrium model. The major findings and implications of this paper are as follows. First, trade creation hypothesis rather than trade diversion is verified empirically in all scenarios. Second, regional integration in East Asia is more open to trade than that in the Americas; the trade diversions in East Asia are relatively weak compared with those in the Americas. Third, this distinction in two continents is clarified, when diversion effects calculated in terms of liberalization gains (GDP and welfare). Fourth, ASEAN+3 would be the natural policy choice for the formation of a regional trading agreement in East Asia. Fifth, cross-border fragmentation in East Asia would be the main cause of second, third and fourth conclusions.
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