14·5 계획 이후 중국의 경제안보형 산업정책의 양상 전망

Abstract

This paper identifies the direction of industrial policy in China’s 14th Five Year Plan (FYP) as the economic security. About the history of China’s industrial policy, two different views namely, continuity and discontinuity, depict different features. Continuity view is supposed to contribute to CCP’s legitimacy and it does not analyse nor reflect the mistakes during 1980s. Discontinuity view, on the other hand, brings objective observation without political consideration. But it needs to be supplemented so as to revaluate the terms and background of the past policies. I observed from recent eight years’ Government Work Reports (GWRs) and FYPs that China’s industrial policy has a deep concerning and engagement about economic security since 2020. In the recent GWRs, the word “Manufacturing Power” disappeared while “industry and supply chain security” emerged. Reactive economic security is more difficult to achieve than active Innovation Driven Development Strategy (IDDS). I discussed the reemphasis on manufacturing and the possibility of frugal innovation when China pursues economic security as a second-best option. The 14th FYP promulgated that the manufacturing’s portion in GDP would be maintained stably and service sector’s portion declined consequently in 2021. Reactive reemphasis on manufacturing could result in frugal innovation because the gap in the supply chain should be filled anyhow even if it is not the best or cutting-edge way. This kind of frugal innovation could not be achieved in the proud manner and ultimately could result in Galápagos syndrome in the Chinese economic eco-system.