미어세이머의 공격적 현실주의 이론과 21세기 동북아 국제질서：방어, 공격적 현실주의 논쟁과 공격적 현실주의 재평가
Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism and North East Asian Regional Order in the 21st Century: The Debates Between Defensive and Offensive realism and the Reexamination of Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism
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본 연구의 목적은 ‘방어적 현실주의’와 ‘공격적 현실주의’ 사이의 논쟁을 미어세이머(John J. Mearsheimer)의 공격적 현실주의 국제정치이론에 대한 체계적인 평가를 중심으로 살펴보고 이를 21세기 동북아 국제질서의 예측에 적용해 보는 것이다. 왈츠를중심으로 다수의 학자들이 강대국을 현재의 세력 균형을 유지하기 위해 노력하는 ‘방어적 지위 유지자’로 상정하였던 것에 반해 미어세이머를 비롯한 일군의 학자들은 세력 균형을 자신에게 유리하게 변경시키기 위해 끊임없이 노력하는 ‘공격적 현상 변경국가’로 상정해야 한다고 주장했다. 미어세이머는 이를 국제체제의 속성으로부터 체계적으로 도출하여 2001년 ‘강대국 국제정치의 비극’을 내놓았다. 본 논문은 먼저 미어세이머 이론의 대강을 그의 논문들과 ‘강대국 국제정치의 비극’을 중심으로 정리하고 이어서 이러한 이론이 방어적 현실주의와 어떠한 점에서 다르며현실의 분석에 있어서 어떠한 차이를 파생시키는지에 대해 기존의 분석들을 정리하고새로운 관점을 제시할 것이다. 천안함 사태와 연평도 포격 사건 이후 미, 중 간의 군사적 긴장이 고조되면서 동북아 국제정치의 분석에 있어서 현실주의적 시각이 부상하고, 중국의 공격적 행보와 관련한 공격적 현실주의에 의한 해석 가능성이 다시금 부각되고 있다. 따라서 공격적 현실주의의 본질과 함의를 현실주의 이론 논쟁의 틀 속에서 조명해 보는 것은 이론적인동시에 현실적으로도 시의 적절한 일이 될 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze the debates between ‘defensive realism’and ‘offensive realism,’ centering on the systemic reexamination of John J. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism and to predict the future order of North East Asian region by it. Many scholars following Kenneth Waltz have assumed great powers are basically ‘the defensive positionalists’ which try to keep their positions in the current balance of power, while Mearsheimer argues great powers continuously seek to change the balance of power in their favor. Especially Mearsheimer published in 2001 ‘The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” which provides comprehensive and delicate system theory to prove his arguments about state behavior. The article first presents the outline of Mearsheimer’s offensive realism based on his various papers and the book, and after that, it analyzes the differences between the two versions of systemic realism and origins which cause those differences,finally showing how the two differently interpret the realities of international relations. After the Incident of Cheonan Battleship and Yonpung Island, the military tension between United States and China has been more and more escalated, which requires more realistic explanation of the whole situation. At the same time, in anticipating future North East Asian regional relations, we will come to need to interpret the real intention of China from the viewpoint of offensive realism, as time goes by. Thus it will be proper and necessary to illuminate the essence and implications of offensive realism to understand the current and future situation of North East Asian region.
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