북한 핵개발 실태와 대외정책

Abstract

The strongest international sanctions on North Korea is continuing unleashed by the 4 th nuclear test in January and long range missile launch in 2016. This is resulted from international consensus that North Korean nuclear issue cannot be solved by existing resolutions. North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat is ahead of upcoming crisis situation to us. In this circumstance, it is necessary to thoroughly examine the current North Korean nuclear development and also analyze its foreign policy as appropriate countermeasures should be correctly considered. We cannot verify exact capability of North Korean nuclear and missile. It can only be assumed that North Korea secured considerable amount of nuclear materials through erstwhile nuclear tests and developed miniaturization and weight reduction of the nuclear warhead. While in case of long-range missiles, it seems not to seize re-entry technology of the nuclear warhead yet, but to reach a level to load them in the Rodong missiles. As a result, we need to prepare the countermeasures on the assumption that North Korea has secured the capability to directly strike us. North Korean foreign policy seems to be related to South Korea revolutionary line. Among three revolutionary lines, it is abusing the nuclear development for strengthening international revolutionary capabilities. North Korea insists that its nuclear development is just a means of self defense against US hostility against it and in order to resolve the fundamental problems, North Korea-US peace treaty should be signed, US Forces in Korea should be withdrawn, and ROK-US combined training should be discontinued. Nevertheless, US demands denuclearization prior to all other options. North Korean foreign relations not only with South Korea but also China, Russia, Japan and so on are on the skids. South Korea is directly connected to North Korean nuclear issue. We should realize the error of our understanding on North Korean nuclear issue and do all our best to induce its regime change.