내각안정성 결정인자의 교차국가적 측정을 위한 등가지표의 구축전략: 방법론적 선행연구
Methodological Strategy for Constructing Cross-national Equivalent Measures of Explanatory Variables for Cabinet Stability: A Pilot Study
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등가성과 교차사례적 측정타당성을 지닌 내각안정성 결정인자의측정지표를 구축하기 위해 중다회귀분석을 수행하여 13개 지표로 조작정의된 4개 설명변인의 구성타당성을 확인한 결과, 정치적 균열양태의 지표인 야당집중도가 교차사례적 구성타당성을 확보하고 있음을 발견하였다. 이처럼 야당집중도가 교차사례적 구성타당성을 지닌것으로 확인됨에 따라 각 지역별 표본(서유럽 표본, 중남미 표본, 서유럽－중남미 통합표본)을 대상으로 정치적 균열양태 변인의 7가지조작지표를 이용하여 인자분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 세 표본에서모두 지표들이 3개 인자로 구분ㆍ결집되었으나, 인자의 결집양상에있어서 상당한 교차지역적 변이가 표출됨에 따라 이러한 지표들을사용할 경우 분석모형의 내적 타당성이 상실된다는 사실이 밝혀졌다. 세 번째 단계에서는 세 표본 모두에서 동일한 인자로 결집되는 지표들(의회분절도, 제1정당 의석점유율, 정당집중도)을 사례별 지표로 선택, 인자분석을 수행하여 이들이 하나의 맥락으로 통합될 수 있음을확인한 후, 이들을 결합한 통합적 등가인자를 도출하였다. 마지막으로는 통합적 등가인자를 이용한 집단별 회귀모형을 비교ㆍ평가함으로써 분석모형의 적용적실성 여부를 점검하였다i
Abstract
A multiple regression analysis of the 4 variables operationalized in terms of the 13 indicators for measuring cabinet stability shows that the Herfindahl Index of Opposition(HIO), an index of political cleavage, maintains cross-cases equivalence and measurement validity. As HIO possess cross-cases construct validity, three separate factor analyses for the West European sample, the Latin American sample, and the integrated sample of the West Europe and Latin America have been performed for the 7 indicators of political cleavage. While the result of each factor analysis shows that the indicators are clustered around the 3 factors, clustering pattern demonstrates significant cross-cases variance, leading to a tentative conclusion that a causal model comprising these indicators is likely to lose internal validity. As parliamentary fractionalization, percentage of seats held by largest party, HIO fall into the same categorical factor in each sample, additional factor analysis has been done to see if they are clustered around the same context, the result of which shows that they can be incorporated into one integrated factor with cross-cases equivalence. Finally the comparison of group-wise regression models comprising the integrated factor confirms the applicability of each model..
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