Measuring Party System: Revisiting Competitiveness and Volatility in Parliamentary Party Systems
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This study aims to generate indicators of party system applicable to studies of measuring the party system, and to conceptualize party system properties with eight measures of party system, i.e., strength of the largest party, actual number of parties in parliament, fractionalization index by Rae, effective number of parties by Laakso and Taagepera, aggregation index by Mayer, volatility seat renovated from Pederson’s, strength of the second largest party and the strength of the third largest parties. For this study, we collected our own dataset which includes the percentage of parliamentary seats occupied by parties in 212 nations and used 187 nations for the analysis. We focused on changes of party system, and collected data on the distribution of party seats at two points in time: after a stimulus election prior to 2007 and after a referent election adjacent to the stimulus election. The very low correlations between percentages of seats held by parties #1 and #2, and #2 and #3, suggest that the success of the second largest party is largely independent of the third party’s success. The percentage of seats held by the second largest party in parliament offers itself as a good simple indicator of parliamentary party competition. Regarding volatility, there was virtually no correlation between the logged volatility seat score and the percentage of seats held by party #2 in the stimulus year. Volatility correlated slightly negatively with party #1 seats and slightly positively with party #3 seats. Our findings reconfirms that volatility is distinctly different dimension of party system properties. Our measure of party competition, the second largest and the volatility score tended to be unrelated to any of the other six indicators. Moreover, the factor analysis showed that six indicators, i.e., the strength of the largest party, actual number of parties in parliament, fractionalization, effective number of parties, aggregation index, and the strength of the third largest party, load on Factor 1, which could be named as party system fragmentation. The strength of the second largest party load on Factor 2, which could be named as “Party system competitiveness.” However, the volatility measure again did not correlate systematically and sufficiently with any of the other indicators. This confirms that we could use volatility for another independent indicator for measuring party system.
Abstract
This study aims to generate indicators of party system applicable to studies of measuring the party system, and to conceptualize party system properties with eight measures of party system, i.e., strength of the largest party, actual number of parties in parliament, fractionalization index by Rae, effective number of parties by Laakso and Taagepera, aggregation index by Mayer, volatility seat renovated from Pederson’s, strength of the second largest party and the strength of the third largest parties. For this study, we collected our own dataset which includes the percentage of parliamentary seats occupied by parties in 212 nations and used 187 nations for the analysis. We focused on changes of party system, and collected data on the distribution of party seats at two points in time: after a stimulus election prior to 2007 and after a referent election adjacent to the stimulus election. The very low correlations between percentages of seats held by parties #1 and #2, and #2 and #3, suggest that the success of the second largest party is largely independent of the third party’s success. The percentage of seats held by the second largest party in parliament offers itself as a good simple indicator of parliamentary party competition. Regarding volatility, there was virtually no correlation between the logged volatility seat score and the percentage of seats held by party #2 in the stimulus year. Volatility correlated slightly negatively with party #1 seats and slightly positively with party #3 seats. Our findings reconfirms that volatility is distinctly different dimension of party system properties. Our measure of party competition, the second largest and the volatility score tended to be unrelated to any of the other six indicators. Moreover, the factor analysis showed that six indicators, i.e., the strength of the largest party, actual number of parties in parliament, fractionalization, effective number of parties, aggregation index, and the strength of the third largest party, load on Factor 1, which could be named as party system fragmentation. The strength of the second largest party load on Factor 2, which could be named as “Party system competitiveness.” However, the volatility measure again did not correlate systematically and sufficiently with any of the other indicators. This confirms that we could use volatility for another independent indicator for measuring party system.
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