대통령제 국가에서의 연립정부 구성의 정치
Presidential Electoral System and Government Coalition
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초록
이 연구는 대통령제 국가에서 전개되는 연립정부 구성의 수수께끼를 규명하는데에 목적을 둔다. 대통령제에서 연립정부 구성의 어려움을 피력한 대통령제비판론자의 주장과는 달리, 대통령당선자는 소속정당이 과반의석 확보에 실패했을 때 소수정부로 남기보다 정당 연합을 통해 연립정부를 구성하고 있다. 이러한 정치적 현실은 연립정부가 어떠한 정치, 경제적 조건에서 구성되는지에관한 연구를 촉구하고 있다. 이 논문은 이러한 문제의식을 바탕으로 대통령제에서 연립정부 구성 조건을 파악하려 한 기존연구가 간과한 제도적 조건을 찾으려 했다. 이 연구가 주목한 변수는 대통령 결선투표제이다. 신생민주주의국가를 대상으로 이루어진 패널분석결과, 대통령 결선투표제는 유력 대통령 후보 수를 증가시킴으로써 연립정부를구성하는 데에 통계적으로뿐 아니라 실질적으로 매우 중대한 효과를 발휘하는것으로 밝혀졌다.
Abstract
This study is aimed at exploring the mystery revolving around government coalition in the presidential system. This paper strives to address this puzzle not only by examining the impact of presidential legislative powers and the ideological distance among political parties within coalition government that the previous studies place emphasis on, but also by identifying the influence of a new variable of the presidential run-off system measured by the number of effective presidential candidates. By adopting the panel logistic regression method with the random effects model, this paper conducted a statistical test of the institutional effect of the presidential electoral system on the possibility of government coalition, while holding constant the control variables highlighted by the previous studies. The result of the panel logistic regression method revealed that the probability of government coalition had a tendency to increase approximately by 15% on average as the number of effective presidential candidates increased by 1.
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