이란 핵협정 복원과 관련국의 국내 정치
Restoration of Iran’s Nuclear Agreement and Domestic Politics of Related Countries
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Improving relations between the U.S. and Iran, represented by the restoration of the JCPOA, is the important pillars of the Biden administration’s strategic goal to save power in the Middle East and to put more energy into containing China. However, negotiations for the restoration of the JCPOA, which President Biden ambitiously started shortly after taking office, were suspended in two months. Some argue that the JCPOA is likely to be restored with Iran’s current economic situation and Biden’s will. However, this paper argues that there are many restrictions on the restoration of the JCPOA, explaining Iran’s consideration of regime security, the situation of the U.S. Senate, and Israel’s political situation, citing the Selectorate theory and the Audience Cost theory. Iran’s situation will be directly affected by the US foreign policy, but political dynamics within Iran, the US, and Israel will serve as an obstacle to the development of Iran’s situation, including the restoration of nuclear agreements.
Abstract
Improving relations between the U.S. and Iran, represented by the restoration of the JCPOA, is the important pillars of the Biden administration’s strategic goal to save power in the Middle East and to put more energy into containing China. However, negotiations for the restoration of the JCPOA, which President Biden ambitiously started shortly after taking office, were suspended in two months. Some argue that the JCPOA is likely to be restored with Iran’s current economic situation and Biden’s will. However, this paper argues that there are many restrictions on the restoration of the JCPOA, explaining Iran’s consideration of regime security, the situation of the U.S. Senate, and Israel’s political situation, citing the Selectorate theory and the Audience Cost theory. Iran’s situation will be directly affected by the US foreign policy, but political dynamics within Iran, the US, and Israel will serve as an obstacle to the development of Iran’s situation, including the restoration of nuclear agreements.
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