이란의 정부에 따른 핵 개발 기조 변화
Shifts of each Iranian Government’s Nuclear Policies
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Iran is a theocratic republic in which the supreme leader and the president coexist. The supreme leader, ranked No. 1 in the constitution, is indirectly elected by a group of clerics and serves for a lifelong period, while the president is directly elected by the people and serves a four-year term. Based on the rule of Islamic jurists, the supreme leader can be described as having absolute power internally, and it is reasonable to assume that many policy issues will consistently reflect the supreme leader’s intentions. However, when it comes to nuclear issues, Iran has exhibited different reactions under different governments, despite having the same supreme leader in power. This study examines the nuclear development stances of each Iranian government based on Solingen’s “Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint.” The theory posits that the cost of nuclear proliferation varies according to the economic systems adopted by the ruling group. With this understanding, the study argues that the inconsistency in Iranian nuclear policies is influenced by the check and balance structure between the supreme leader-centered winning coalition and the president-centered winning coalition.
Abstract
Iran is a theocratic republic in which the supreme leader and the president coexist. The supreme leader, ranked No. 1 in the constitution, is indirectly elected by a group of clerics and serves for a lifelong period, while the president is directly elected by the people and serves a four-year term. Based on the rule of Islamic jurists, the supreme leader can be described as having absolute power internally, and it is reasonable to assume that many policy issues will consistently reflect the supreme leader’s intentions. However, when it comes to nuclear issues, Iran has exhibited different reactions under different governments, despite having the same supreme leader in power. This study examines the nuclear development stances of each Iranian government based on Solingen’s “Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint.” The theory posits that the cost of nuclear proliferation varies according to the economic systems adopted by the ruling group. With this understanding, the study argues that the inconsistency in Iranian nuclear policies is influenced by the check and balance structure between the supreme leader-centered winning coalition and the president-centered winning coalition.
참고문헌 (29)
- 김민성, "대이란 경제제재 효과성 검토와 북한에의 함의", 국제관계연구, 25(1), pp.77~124 (2020), 일민국제관계연구원[DOI]
- 김은비, "이란의 정권 안보: IRGC를 통한 군사화를 중심으로", 중동문제연구, 20(2), pp.1~31 (2021), 중동문제연구소[DOI]
- 김은비, "이란 핵협정 복원과 관련국의 국내 정치", 지중해지역연구, 23(4), pp.1~24 (2021), 지중해지역원[DOI]
- 김종도, "이란 이슬람공화국 헌법" (2017), 명지대학교중동문제연구소. 도서출판 모시는 사람들
- 박종윤, "승자연합 네트워크 분석을 통해 본 김정은 정권의 안정성 평가", 국방정책연구, 36(3), pp.173~207 (2020), 한국국방연구원[DOI]
- 유달승, "이란의 군부엘리트와 부족주의의 관계 연구", 중동연구, 28(3), pp.97~115 (2010), 중동연구소
- 유흥태, "전략지역심층연구(15-17) 논문집Ⅳ", pp.81~144 (2015), 대외경제정책연구원
- 이란의 정치⋅권력구조와 주요 정파별 경제정책, "이권형", 대외경제정책연구원, ~, pp.전략지역심층연구 12-17 (2012)
- 인남식, "이란 핵협상 타결의 함의와 전망", 주요국제문제분석 (2015), 국립외교원 외교안보연구소
- 정상률, "오바마-트럼프 정부의 중동정책과 JCPOA 평가 - 이란과 미국 간 관계 전망 -", 중동문제연구, 16(4), pp.1~33 (2017), 중동문제연구소
- De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, "세계정치론: 전쟁과 평화 그리고 세계질서" (2015), 카오스북
- Chubin, Shahram, "Wither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security" (2002), Routledge
- De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, "Domestic Explanations of International Relations", Annual Review of Political Science, 15, pp.161~181 (2012)
- What Do Iranians Think? A survey of Attitudes on the United States, the Nuclear Program, and the Economy, "Elson, Sara Beth", RAND National Defense Institute, ~ (2011)
- Halliday, Fred, "The Middle East in International Relations : Power, Politics and Ideology" (2005), Cambridge
- Demirel, Hamza, "Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC): More Than A Branch Of Armed Forces" (2016)
- Bastani, Hossein, "How Powerful Is Rouhani in the Islamic Republic?. The Royal Institute of International Affairs. November 2014. Iran Quick Reference Guide. Version 1.1", U.S. Army Asymmetric Warfare Group, ~ (2014)
- Khalaj, Mehdi, "Tightening The Reins: How Khamenei Makes Decisions" (2014), The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Civil-Military Relations and Regime Survival in Iran Civil-Military Relations and Regime Survival in Iran, "Golkar, Saeid", The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, ~ (2019)
- Soligen, Etel, "Nuclear Logics : Contrasting Paths in East Asia & The Middle East" (2007), Priceton University Press
- Halit Mustafa Tagma, "Bureaucrats, Ayatollahs, and Persian Politics: Explaining the Shift in Iranian Nuclear Policy", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 24(2), pp.239~264 (2012), 한국국방연구원[DOI]
- "The Seven Presidents" (2021)[URL]
- "What Happens If Iran Gets “The Bomb?”" (2004)[URL]
- 동아일보, "“개방해야 경제성장”...핵 대신 빵 택한 로하니의 실용주의", ~ (2015)
- 연합뉴스, "라이시 이란 대통령 취임... “제재 해제하고 민생 문제 해결할 것”", ~ (2021)
- 연합뉴스, "이란 최고지도자 “제재 덕분에 많은 발전... 구내 생산 집중해야”", ~ (2022)
- 문화일보, "이란 ‘核국가 클럽’ 가입 선언", ~ (2006)
- 연합뉴스, "<인물>문명대화론 주창 하타미 이란 대통령", ~ (1999)
- 한겨레, "98%의 지지로 ‘이란이슬람공화국’ 탄생하다", ~ (2008)