이란 핵 프로그램과 국가 정체성: 트럼프 2기 핵 협상 시나리오 분석

Abstract

This study examines Iran’s nuclear program not merely as a security challenge but as a core component of national identity and regime legitimacy, particularly in the context of the 2025 negotiations under the second Trump administration. While much of the existing literature approaches Iran’s nuclear ambitions from a strategic or nonproliferation perspective, this paper highlights how identity-based narratives—rooted in sovereignty, civilizational pride, and resistance discourse—have profoundly shaped Iran’s nuclear policy. By applying realism, constructivism, and rational choice theory, the study compares the domestic and international conditions of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with those of 2025, marked by renewed diplomatic tensions, military conflict on June 13, and a fragile ceasefire. Three possible scenarios are proposed and evaluated: (1) a deadlock leading to escalation and NPT disruption, (2) a limited agreement reviving parts of the JCPOA with incremental concessions, and (3) a framework of informal coordination and sanctions circumvention without formal normalization. Each scenario is analyzed in terms of its implications for political stability, economic recovery, regional security, and global nonproliferation norms. The findings suggest that Iran’s insistence on uranium enrichment is not simply a negotiating tactic but a reflection of deeply entrenched national identity constructs. Accordingly, any sustainable diplomatic solution must go beyond technical fixes and address Iran’s symbolic, ideological, and historical imperatives. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations that stress pragmatic sequencing, reciprocal incentives, and third-party mediation to restore trust and avoid future military escalation.