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정부비신뢰와 레바논 국민의 헤즈볼라 지지도 부상

Distrust in Government and Growing People’s Support to Hezbollah in Lebanon

김도형|김선우|서정민|송진경
지중해지역원 (상동)|2022.02|지중해지역연구 (Journal of Mediterranean Area Studies)|제24권 제1호|pp. 55-78|DOI 10.18218/jmas.2022.24.1.55

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참고문헌

키워드

Public Awareness로지스틱회귀분석Logistic Regression레바논헤즈볼라Lebanon정부비신뢰자국민 인식HezbollahDistrust in Government
주제분류학제간연구

초록

Political situation in Lebanon is deteriorating. The lives of ordinary people are collapsing and people’s dissatisfaction with the government is on the rise. In particular, after the Beirut explosion that occurred on August 4, 2020, the total resignation of the cabinet and the consequent political vacuum due to the vacancy of the prime minister continued for over a year. In this process, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah’s influence is growing. With an increasing support of people, Hezbollah is gradually expanding its presence in the governmental and political arena. Considering this situation, this study empirically analyzes the relationship between distrust in government caused by a series of socio-economic disasters and political corruption cases in Lebanon and the increasing public support to Hezbollah. This research sets the variables related to the citizens’ perceptions of the current Lebanese government’s ability to perform state affairs as independent variables and the political preference of the public for Hezbollah as a dependent variable. On the basis of the variable setting, this paper tries to investigate the association between variables through quantitative analysis. As a result of the analysis, it is found that distrust in government regarding the political aspect had a positive effect on the public support to Hezbollah. Therefore, it is expected that Hezbollah’s political power will gradually expand in the future and continue to play an important role in the public affairs of the country. It is also believed that the Lebanese people, who are skeptical about effectiveness of the governmental functions, are showing their political preference for Hezbollah and trying to overcome the current crisis with the help of the group. Thus, it is important to analyze the expanding political and socio-economic role of Hezbollah when we are trying to forecast the future direction of Lebanese politics.

Abstract

Political situation in Lebanon is deteriorating. The lives of ordinary people are collapsing and people’s dissatisfaction with the government is on the rise. In particular, after the Beirut explosion that occurred on August 4, 2020, the total resignation of the cabinet and the consequent political vacuum due to the vacancy of the prime minister continued for over a year. In this process, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah’s influence is growing. With an increasing support of people, Hezbollah is gradually expanding its presence in the governmental and political arena. Considering this situation, this study empirically analyzes the relationship between distrust in government caused by a series of socio-economic disasters and political corruption cases in Lebanon and the increasing public support to Hezbollah. This research sets the variables related to the citizens’ perceptions of the current Lebanese government’s ability to perform state affairs as independent variables and the political preference of the public for Hezbollah as a dependent variable. On the basis of the variable setting, this paper tries to investigate the association between variables through quantitative analysis. As a result of the analysis, it is found that distrust in government regarding the political aspect had a positive effect on the public support to Hezbollah. Therefore, it is expected that Hezbollah’s political power will gradually expand in the future and continue to play an important role in the public affairs of the country. It is also believed that the Lebanese people, who are skeptical about effectiveness of the governmental functions, are showing their political preference for Hezbollah and trying to overcome the current crisis with the help of the group. Thus, it is important to analyze the expanding political and socio-economic role of Hezbollah when we are trying to forecast the future direction of Lebanese politics.

참고문헌 (48)

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