북한 소규모 사유화의 수준과 추세: 정량적 접근

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify the levels and trends of small-scale privatization of North Korea through a quantitative approach. The research has been performed by comparing survey results of 2005,2009,2012,2015. In 2005, the survey targets were North Korean defectors who escaped North Korea during 2003- 2005; in 2009, the survey targets were North Korean defectors who escaped North Korea during 2007- 2009; in 2012, the survey targets were North Korean defectors who escaped North Korea during 2007- 2012, and in 2015, the survey targets were North Korean defectors who escaped North Korea during 2013- 2015. Therefore, the comparison of the investigation groups can show the changes and trends of small-scale privatization of North Korea. According to the research results, the service industry (in a broad sense) has been developed more than manufacturing business while the small-scale privatization has been progressed. Research results show that in 2015, over 50% companies were run by private investigators in service industry (in the broad sense), while in the manufacturing business it was 20%. This implies that the progress of privatization of North Korea is similar to the early experiences of transition of socialist nations in 1990s. Research showed that among the three survey groups, 2005, 2009, and 2015, there are statistically meaningful differences among local industry factories, stores, and service industry (in the narrow sense). According to 13 years of observation from 2003 to 2015, in four to six years intervals, divided by three periods, it is determined that half of the survey target categories (3 out of 6 categories) have proceeded towards small-scale privatization. In addition, the result of the analysis of the statistical differences between two groups, 2005 and 2009, there were meaningful differences in 3 categories of 6, including local industry plants, central industry plants, stores, and only 1 category, service business, was shown to have meaningful differences between the 2009 and 2015 survey groups. However, there were examined statistical differences in all 6 categories between the 2005 and 2015 survey groups. As stated, 10 years of long term observation confirmed that the severe trend of small-scale privatization occurred in all categories between 2003–2005 and 2013-2015. Moreover, as a result of observation in the classification and breaking down of private business, 13 categories survey targets were identified distinct small-scale privatization has increased: borrowing a name from the organizations and associations private fishing boats, private mines, private trucks, private stores, private restaurants which are rented from the government, private restaurants in homes, private beauty shops, private photo studios, private game rooms, private billiard rooms, private accommodations. Also, temporary employment cases have increased in 9 categories including private farmland, private fishing boats, private mines, private noodle or replica meat manufactures, private restaurants, and private convenience service business. This research result showed an accurate phenomenon of name landing privatization. In this research, the increase in both business and employees can be observed, both of which must exist in the antipode of private business employers growth. In addition, the small-scale privatization size and trend of North Korea study results propound the research question about the precedent study of marketization trend. Some precedent studies argued that the marketization or informal economy of North Korea expanded after 1990 and was stable after 2000 based on another precedent study which was the quantitative approach of the survey results of North Korean defectors who had escaped North Korea. Yet the research concluded that not only in 1990, but also in 2000, based on a quantitative approach of the survey results of North Korean defectors who escaped North Korea, the marketization of North Korea expanded.