경기요인을 고려한 주택개발 사업성 평가의 정량화 모델 제안

Abstract

In the feasibility valuation models for domestic housing projects, the precedent factors such as real-estate policy, supply and demand, location, price and facility are extracted. Thus, there has been the notable limitation that the business cycle as an economic condition and status are not considered enough while most people have been concerned about its effects and importance in project evaluation. Furthermore, it is not available to compare or analyze together those valuation results proposed by different feasibility test firms, basically because most feasibility testing paper provide their conclusion in the non-measurable forms, such as narrative rating descriptions. This study is to provide the modified feasibility model, considering business cycle factors and transforming all the narrative ratings into measurable ones. Samples are 22 actual housing project with their final results measured by the competition ratio to purchase each real estate in overall. The Real-estate business cycle factor has been reflected in this study in order to enhance the utilization of Feasibility Test Model. As the result of adopting year-on-year increase rate of each regional marketing index of apartments in this study, the coefficient of correlation of the model have been improved significantly. And we also find that the forecasting errors for estimating success or fail for each project in the ends are decreased significantly. Based on those findings, we expect that including business cycle factors and transforming into numeric forms sure to enhance the practical utilitiesof feasibility model in feasibility test business.