한국 자동차 산업의 특성을 고려한 승용차 생산량 변동 요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics and factors affecting changes in production quantities for passenger vehicles. In view of this, a multiple regression analysis was performed to judge the factors that affected changes in volumes of passenger vehicle production. After analyzing the influence of independent variables on the regression models, the result was verified as to whether it matches with the actual situation of the passenger vehicle industry in Korea. Composition/Logic: This paper is composed of five sections. In section 2, previous studies covering the characteristics of trade, demand, and market changes in the automotive industry are reviewed. The correlation, trend, and seasonality of actual automobile production volumes have been corroborated in section 3. In section 4, the regression models have been developed to understand the relationship between dependent and independent variables through the multiple regression analysis. In addition, the results of analysis are explained based on the characteristics of the Korean automotive market. Lastly, section 5 concludes by summarizing contributions and offering recommendations for future works. Findings: All independent variables, namely holiday dummy variables, USD–KRW exchange rate, average oil price, passenger vehicle producer price index, and business survey index of the automotive industry, in the regression models are statistically significant. Especially, a rise in the exchange rate influenced the export volumes of small and mid-sized vehicles, and rising oil prices were affecting the export volumes to the Middle Eastern countries. These results allow part suppliers to predict production quantities of passenger vehicles reasonably, making it possible to control demand and inventory effectively. Originality/Value: Prior research on demand in the automotive industry has focused on either predicting the total demand for automobiles or on predicting the demand for specialized vehicles with certain technologies. Especially, they concluded by overlooking the market based on the results of demand forecasting. In this study, the variable factors of monthly production volumes in the passenger vehicle industry have been analyzed considering the sizes and types. Furthermore, all dependent variables were classified on the basis of environmental and economic factors to verify the impact of export volumes in the marketplace.