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불확실성에서의 의사결정과 확률: 케인즈와 행동경제학

Decision Making under Uncertainty and Probability: Keynes and Behavioral Economics

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키워드

주제분류경제학

초록

이 논문은 케인즈 경제학과 행동경제학의 관계를 인식함에 있어 케인즈 사상과이론의 (불)연속성 문제가 미치는 영향에 대해 논의하고 있다. 케인즈 경제학과행동경제학의 유사성에 관한 최근의 많은 관심에도 불구하고 케인즈 경제학과 행동경제학 사이의 근본적인 차이점에 대한 지적들이 존재한다. 이러한 평가의 차이는 상당 부분 케인즈가 『확률론』에서의 철학적 입장과 확률 및 의사결정 이론을 『일반이론』에서 포기하였는가에 관한 견해의 차이에 기인한다. 케인즈 사상과이론의 연속성이 강조될 경우 행동거시경제학의 기반으로서 『일반이론』의 의미는 약화된다. 불연속성이 강조될 경우 행동경제학의 의사결정 이론에 있어 케인즈의 『확률론』이 가지는 의미가 약화된다.

Abstract

This paper discusses the effect of ‘Das Maynard Keynes Problem’ on the comparison between keynesian economics and behavioral economics. In spite of the similarity between two schools, there also exist the arguments on the fundamental differences between them. These contrast views on the relationship between Keynes and behavioral economics result from the interpretation on the (dis)continuity of Keynes’s two books, A Treatise on Probability and The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money. Whereas the emphasis on the continuity in Keynes’s thought does not maintain the status of The General Theory as the basis of behavioral macroeconomics, the argument for discontinuity in Keynes’s probability theory decreases the similarity of A Treatise on Probability with behavioral decision making theory under uncertainty.

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