기후변화 협약의 국제 저감목표 달성을 위한 기후변화협약 이행방안의 효과 분석
Study on Effect of Mitigation Action to Achieve Global Emission Reduction Target
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초록
본 연구는 기후변화 협약의 총 감축 목표가 부속서 국가의 노력만으로는 불가능하며, 비 부속서 국가의 자발적인 감축 노력 및 협력이 있는 경우 국제 저감 목표달성이 가능함을 2국가 불완전 경쟁시장 모형을 이용하여 실험하였다. 논문의 결과에서 의무감축 대상국은 저감 목표를 달성 하지만, 비 대상국의 총 배출이 증가하는 “오염 집중현상”이 발생해 국제 저감 목표를 달성할 수 없었다. 한편 의무 감축국의 CDM 사업이나 비 대상국이 자발적 저감 목표 설정을 하는 경우 후생 수준은 감소하지만 국제 협약의 배출저감 목표를 달성 할 수 있음을 보았다. 마지막으로, 논문은 의무 감축국의 CDM 사업과 비 부속서 국가의 자발적인 저감 목표설정 등의 복합적 저감 노력이 전체 국가의 후생 손실을 최소화 하면서 국제 배출저감 목표의 달성할 수 있음을 논의 하였다.
Abstract
This paper documents evidence that global climate change target can not be achieved only by Annex countries’ mitigation activities without Non-Annex countries’ effort and cooperation. I assume there are two countries and non-perfect competition market. In the result, an Annex country can achieve abatement target, but the emission of a Non-Annex country increases due to its “emission concentration”. So global emission target can’t be achieved. In other scenario, where Non-Annex country enforces a self-regulation by imposing emission target or invites CDM, global emission can be achieved. But global welfare decreases in the former case. In the last scenario, the mixed strategy of self-regulation and CDM, global emission target can be achieved and it has minimum welfare losses.
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