氣候變化協約의 經濟的 波及效果 및 示唆點: Global CGE 模型을 이용한 協商段階別 結果 比較分析

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic and environmental implications of UNFCCC negotiation results from Kyoto Protocol in 1997 to Marrakesh Accords in 2001 by utilizing Global CGE model (GTEM-KOR). It shows that the US and Australia withdrawals from Kyoto Protocol reduce total economic costs for Annex I countries, but have a great impact in reducing environmental effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol. On the one hand, it also shows that the capped credits on forest management for Annex I countries are the bankability of emission credits for international emission trading(IET) further reduce the environmental effectiveness, although the impact is comparatively small compared with the US and Australia withdrawals. The GHG abatement efforts by Annex I countries are projected to increase GNP of Non-Annex I countries in total, but the impact on each country will vary depending on industrial and trade structures of its own. As regards South Korea, it is projected to gain a little economic benefit with the GHG abatement by Annex I countries.