통화정책의 Cash-Flow 경로 유효성 분석
An Analysis of Cash-Flow Channel Effectiveness in Monetary Policy
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초록
본 연구는 국내 통화정책의 현금흐름 경로 유효성을 분석하고 동 경로에 따른 소비지출 변동 효과를 시산하였다. 분석결과, 차입 및 저축가구 현금흐름 경로가 모두 유의하게 작동하는 것으로 나타났으며 차입가구 중 유동성제약(Hand-to- Mouth) 가구인 경우에는 그 효과가 더욱 큰 것으로 추정되었다. 금리 100bp 인하 시 소비변동 효과는 차입가구는 2.4%, 저축가구는 Δ0.9%로 추정되었다. 이처럼 차입가구의 현금흐름 경로에 의한 소비지출 변동(2.4%)이 저축가구(Δ 0.9%)에 비해 높게 추정되었음에도 불구하고 저축가구의 비중(약 70%)이 상대적으로 많아 차입가구 효과가 상쇄되면서 경제전체의 소비지출 변동(0.06%)은 미미한 것으로 나타났다. 다만 이를 유동성제약(Hand-to-Mouth) 가구로 한정시킬경우에는 경제전체적으로 소비지출이 0.19% 상승하는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the cash-flow channel effectiveness in domestic monetary policy and quantify the change of consumption expenditure according to this channel. We find that both borrower and lender cash-flow channel are significant, and it is estimated that the effect of cash-flow channel on consumption expenditure is stronger for HtM borrower households than non-HtM. Although the change of consumption expenditure by borrower cash-flow channel(2.4%) was estimated to be higher than that of lender households(Δ0.9%), the change of consumption expenditure on the whole economy(0.06%) was not large when the interest rates reduced by 100bp. This is because the share of lender households(about 70%) is relatively higher than that of borrower households, which offset the effect of borrower cash-flow channel. However, if we limit this analysis to HtM households, the change of consumption expenditure on the whole economy is estimated to be 0.19%.
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