불확실성과 자본구조: 정책 불확실성을 중심으로
Capital Structure and Economic Policy Uncertainty in Korea
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초록
본 논문은 2003~2020년 동안 우리나라 기업을 대상으로 정책 불확실성과 기업 자본구조의 관계에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 실증분석 결과 정책 불확실성이 기업의 부채비율을 낮추는 효과가 있음을 확인하였다. 정책 불확실성의 효과는 시장별 차별성을 보이는 데 상대적으로 규모가 작고 업력이 짧은 기업들로 구성된 코스닥 시장의 경우 정책 불확실성이 부채비율에 유의미한 음의 효과를 미치는 데 반해 코스피 시장에서는 부채비율과 정책 불확실성 사이에 유의한 관계를 확인할 수 없었다. 기업 특성에 따라 표본을 구분하여 분석한 결과 금융제약에 직면한 기업은 정책 불확실성에 민감하게 반응하며, 자본시장에 접근이 제한된 기업은 불확실성이 증가하는 경우 부채비율을 감소시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 그리고 내부 자금시장에 접근할 수 있는 기업집단 소속 기업과 다각화에 의해 충격 흡수능력이 높은 수출기업은 정책 불확실성이 자본구조에 영향을 미치지 않는 추정 결과를 확인하였다.
Abstract
This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate capital structure for Korean listed firms. Using firm-level annual data from 2003 to 2020, we find that Korean firms’ leverage ratios declines when economic policy uncertainty increases. This negative relationship between economic policy uncertainty and leverage is pronounced for Kosdaq-listed firms. Financially constrained firms which are small, young and non-dividend paying are sensitive to economic policy uncertainty while firms that have access to capital markets and/or public debt markets are found to mitigate the negative effect of policy uncertainty. Business group affiliated firms that have access to the internal capital markets offset deterioration of the external financing environments caused by heightened economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, internationally diversified firms are found to attenuate the negative influences of economic policy uncertainty.
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