산업연관모형의 고용-고용승수 (Employment Multiplier) 정립: 산업간 고용연관관계와 기회비용의 분석
A Construction of an Employment Multiplier in the Input-Output Model: The Analyses of Industrial Labor Linkages and Opportunity Costs
0
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
산업별 고용변화가 유발하는 고용유발효과와 산업별 고용기회비용을 분석하기 위하여 영업잉여를 내생화한 공급승수를 유도하였고, 공급승수를 변환한 고용승수(외생 고용변화→내생 고용변화 유발효과 분석모형)를 정립하였다. 실증분석에서 첫째, 서비스업 평균 고용유발효과는 제조업에 비하여 낮은 것으로 분석되지만 고용비용을 감안하면 사적 소비자서비스업이나 생산자서비스업의 고용유발효과는 제조업보다 크게 나타난다. 둘째, 산업별 고용연관구조에서는 서비스업 특히 도소매업이 산업별 고용창출에 크게 기여하는 산업으로 평가되었다. 셋째, 수요승수(최종수요-생산) 분석과는 달리 고용승수분석에서는 제조업은 제조업보다는 서비스업의 고용을 많이 창출하며, 서비스업 고용변화는 제조업보다는 서비스업의 고용변화에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
In Input-output model, an employment multiplier is established for the first time to analyze an employment linkage relations and the opportunity cost of employment among industries. A supply multiplier is constructed by endogenizing profit into the model and the multiplier is transformed into an employment multiplier. In the empirical analysis, the average employment inducement effect of the service sector is lower than that of manufacturing industry, but considering the cost of employment, the private consumer service and the producer service sectors show greater the employment inducement effect than those of manufacturing sector. Other characteristics of employment linkage structures are that, first, the whole sale and retail industry great influence on the induced employment; second, manufacturing sector generates more employment in the service sector than that in the manufacturing sector; third, the service sector has an greater impacts on the employment in the service sector than that in the manufacturing sector.
참고문헌 (40)
- "고용노동부 보도자료 (2017. 9.21)", ~ (2017)
- 기업체노동비용조사, "고용노동부", ~ (2017)
- 지해명, "산업연관모형에서 수요-수요승수의 적용과 수요연관구조의 분석", 경제학연구, 56(3), pp.29~53 (2008), 한국경제학회
- 지해명, "지역간 물가승수와 물가연관구조 분석: IRIO-RS 물가추정모형 정립", 지역연구, 27(3), pp.3~25 (2011), 한국지역학회
- 지해명, "애그플레이션의 물가연관구조: 산업연관분석 물가추정모형 재평가를 중심으로", 한국경제연구, 30(4), pp.5~29 (2012), 한국경제연구학회
- 지해명, "지역⋅산업간 부가가치 연관구조의 분석 : 지역 부가가치승수의 정립", 경제연구, 30(3), pp.133~155 (2012), 한국경제통상학회
- 지해명, "지역경제의 성장잠재력 추정에 관한 연구: 부가가치승수와 생산요소 연계모형", 지역연구, 29(2), pp.3~30 (2013), 한국지역학회
- 지해명, "지역·산업별 자본집약도와 부가가치 연관구조 분석: IRIO모형 부가가치승수를 적용한 Galenson-Leibenstein 가설의 평가", 경제분석, 20(2), pp.27~55 (2014), 한국은행
- 한국은행, "산업연관분석해설", ~ (2014)
- 한국은행, "2014년 산업연관표", ~ (2016)
- Armington, P., "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 16, pp.159~178 (1969)
- Barro, R., "Economic Growth" (1995), McGraw-Hill
- Baster, J., "Stability of Trade Patterns in Regional Input-Output Tables", Urban Studies, 17, pp.71~75 (1980)
- Campbell, F., "The Effect of Capital Intensity on the Optimal Rate of Extraction of a Mineral", The Canadian Journal of Economics, 15(3), pp.534~541 (1980)
- Carter, A., "Applications of Input-Output Analysis to Energy Problem", Energy Issues, 184(4134), pp.325~329 (1974)
- Chen, Q., "Modeling the Short-run Effect of Fiscal Stimuli on GDP: A New Semi-closed Input-Output Model", Economic Modelling, 58, pp.52~63 (2016)
- Crabbĕ, P., "The Effect of Capital Intensity on the Optimal Rate of Extraction of a Mineral Deposit. A Comment", Canadian Journal of Economics, 15(3), pp.534~541 (1982)
- Galenson, W., "Investment Criteria, Productivity and Economic Development", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(3), pp.343~370 (1955)
- Ghosh, A., "Input-Output Approach in an Allocation System", Economica, 25(1), pp.58~64 (1958)
- Gupta, L., "Development Rebate, Capital-Intensity and Employment", Economic and Political Weekly, 8(1), pp.25~26 (1973)
- Hardin, L., "Potential Growth Areas in Agricultural Economics", Journal of Farm Economics, 45(5), pp.939~951 (1963)
- Hirshman, A., "The Strategy of Economic Development" (1961), Yale Univ. Press
- Hudson, E., "US. Energy Policy and Economic Growth, 1975∼2000", The Bell Journal of Economic and Management System, 5(2), pp.461~514 (1974)
- 지해명, "Critics on the Exogenous and the Mixed Exogenous–Endogenous Variable Price Estimation Model : A Proposal for the RS Price Estimation Model", 경제연구, 35(2), pp.25~52 (2017), 한국경제통상학회[DOI]
- Kotlikoff, L., "Security and Equilibrium Capital Intensity", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93(2), pp.233~253 (1979)
- Krugman, P., "Toward a Counter-Counter Revolution in Development Theory", Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics (1993)
- Lee, G., "Effects Exogenous Price Changes on a Regional Economy", International Regional Review, 2(1), pp.15~27 (1977)
- Leibenstein, H., "The Theory of Underemployment in Backward Economies", The Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), pp.91~103 (1957)
- Leontief, W., "Input-Output Economics" (1986), Oxford University Press
- Miller, R., "Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions" (1985), Prentice-Hall
- Miller, R., "Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions" (2009), Prentice-Hall
- Miyazawa, K., "Input-Output Analysis and the Structure of Income Distribution" (1976), Springer-Verlag Press
- Moses, L., "Outputs and Prices in Inter-industry Models", Papers of the Regional Science Association, 32, pp.7~18 (1974)
- Polenske, K., "Energy Analysis and the Determination of Multi-regional Prices", Papers of the Regional Science Association, 43, pp.83~97 (1978)
- Rima, I., "Increasing Returns, New Growth Theory, and the Classicals", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27(1), pp.171~184 (2004)
- Ritz, M., "Basic I-O Terminology" (1975), US. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Rosenstein-Rodan, P. N., "Problems of Industrialization of East and South-Eastern Europe", Economic Journal, 53, pp.202~211 (1943)
- Scitovsky, T., "Two Concepts of External Economies", Journal of Political Economy, 62, pp.143~151 (1954)
- Taylor, L., "Socially Relevant Policy Analysis", pp.1~70 (1990), The MIT press
- Tiebout, C., "An Empirical Regional Input-Output Projection Model: The State of Washington 1980", Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(3), pp.334~340 (1969)