산업연관모형에서 수요-수요승수의 적용과 수요연관구조의 분석
A Study on Demand-Demand Multipliers and Demand Linkages in Input-Output Analysis
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초록
기존 산업연관모형의 승수분석에서는 수요-생산승수의 활용도가 높았으므로 수요-수요승수 분석이나 수요연관구조에 대한 분석은 이루어지지 않았다. 본 연구에서 적용하는 수요-수요승수는 수요제약분석, 산업간 수요연계구조 분석에서 적용성이 큰 것으로 나타나며, 이러한 면에서 수요-생산승수의 한계를 보완하는 역할을 하게 된다. 수요-생산승수는 중간투입률, 수요-수요승수는 최종수요 연관비율을 근간으로 승수분석을 하고 있으므로 각각의 종속변수인 생산과 최종수요 간에 차이가 발생하게 된다. 산업별로 보면 서비스업보다는 제조업의 수요-수요승수가 크게 나타나는데 이러한 산업들은 중간투입비중이 높으므로 타산업과 산업연관관계가 깊다는 특징을 갖는다. 생산ㆍ수요연관구조상 특정산업이 큰 영향을 미치는 상위ㆍ하위 산업군에서는 영향을 받는 산업의 순위에서 큰 변화가 없는 반면 중위산업군에서는 그 변동이 큰 것으로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 산업별 순위 변동은 제조업보다는 최종수요비중이 높은 서비스업에서 크게 나타나게 된다. 연관구조에서 발생하는 순위변동은 생산연관구조에서 밀접한 관계에 있는 산업간에는 산업간 중간투입물의 수급구조, 수요연관구조에서는 연관산업(상품)간 대체ㆍ보완관계를 식별할 수 있다는 측면에서 그 차별성 및 적용성을 제시할 수 있다.
Abstract
Recent researches on Input-Output model have been confined to the analyses of output multipliers and production linkages. Demand-demand multipliers and demand linkage analysis are applicable to Input-Output analysis for the design of development plan, the analysis of demand constraints, which give a different results from the production side analysis. Based on the multipliers, final demand-output multipliers are greater than those of final demand-final demand multipliers because of the inclusion of value-added inputs in the final demand-output multipliers. The tendency is stronger in manufacturing than in service industry due to the differences in the ratio of total intermediate input to output. The differences between production and demand linkages are not greater in the upper and lower industry groups that are influenced by the impact of a certain industry, however the differences of the middle class are significant. Production linkages suggest the linkage of intermediate inputs, whereas demand linkages show the complements or substitutes relations among industries. That is the reason of the introduction of demand linkage analysis besides of the production linkage analysis. The demand-demand multipliers can also identify the influence of demand-constraints of a industrial impact on the other industries.
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