고용효과와 고용승수 사이의 競合的 選擇 관계에 관한 연구 : IO모형과 OO모형을 중심으로
A Study on a Trade-off Relationship between Employment Effects and Employment Multipliers : Based on the Input-Output and Output-Output Models
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“고용창출이 없는 경제성장”이란 시대적 과제를 투입ㆍ산출(IO)모형과 새로운 대안모형인 산출ㆍ산출(OO)모형을 통하여 분석하기 위하여 다음의 연구 목적을 설정하고자 한다. (1) IO모형과 OO모형의 성격과 특성, 경제적 유발효과 등을 상호 비교분석하고자 한다. (2) 고용효과와 고용승수 사이의 경합적 선택 관계를 이론적 및 실증적으로 분석하고자 한다. (3) 고용유발효과를 통한 고용창출과 고용승수와 노동생산성을 통한 경제성장 사이의 격차를 좁힐 수 있는 정책적 함의를 제시하는 것이다. IO모형과 OO모형에서『2007년 산업연관표』를 원자료로 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 일자리 창출을 위하여 우선적으로 고려되어야 할 직접 및 총고용효과가 높은 부문과 노동생산성을 통한 경제성장 목표를 위하여 고용승수가 높은 부문 사이에는 상관계수(γ)와 스피어맨 순위상관계수(SRCC,γ)가 모두 負의 값을 갖고 있다. 이를 통하여 고용효과와 고용승수 사이에는 두 가지 바람직한 정책 목표가 경합적 선택 관계에 있음을 알 수 있다. 직접 및 총고용효과를 통한 고용창출에 높은 우선순위가 놓이면, 고용승수를 기반으로 한 경제성장 면에서는 어느 정도의 희생과 포기가 요망된다고 할 수 있다.
Abstract
A jobless recovery (or jobless growth) is one of the most significant hot-potato issues and problems facing the Korean economy especially since 2000. Okun's law (or Okun's rule of thumb), named after American economist Arthur Okun (1926-1980), refers to the relationship between increases in unemployment and decreases in a country's gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, a new“Output- Output(OO) Model”and Table were developed and compiled by Gim and Kim (2009) to solve the consecutive connection and overestimating problems naturally together through the output requirements matrix for output Ca derived from the decomposition by factors in the Leontief inverse Cf. On the basis of the hot issues and latest research findings, the specific objectives of this paper are summarized as follows. (1) We perform a comparative analysis between the input-output and output- output models in characters, characteristics, and induced economic effects. (2) We theoretically and empirically analyse a trade-off relationship between employment effects and employment multipliers on the basis of 2007 Input-Output Tables compiled by the bank of Korea. (3) We derive an alternative long-term policy goal to reduce the difference between job creation from induced economic effects and economic growth from employment multipliers and labor productivity for endogenous sectors. The Spearman,s rank correlation coefficients (SRCC), γs, are calculated between the total employment effects and between the employment multipliers based on the requirements matrices for final demand and output. The SRCC between the total employments effects is 0.9432 and that between the employment multipliers is 0.9878.
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