최저임금과 생산성: 우리나라 제조업의 사례
Minimum Wage and Productivity: Analysis of Manufacturing Industry in Korea
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최저임금 인상 관련 논의가 고용인원 수와 같이 양적 측면에 국한되면서 부정적 효과가주로 부각되어 왔지만, 최저임금 인상은 기업 또는 산업 특성에 따라 생산성 제고, 저생산성 한계기업 퇴출 등 질적 측면에서 긍정적 효과를 가져올 수도 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 관점에서 최저임금 인상이 기업의 생산성에 미친 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 실증분석을위해 제조업 부문의 사업체 단위 패널데이터를 이용하여 제조업 내 업종별 ꞏ 고용규모별 최저임금 영향률을 추정하고 이를 기업의 생산성과 연계함으로써 최저임금 변화가 생산성에미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 특히 생산함수 추정에서 기존 연구의 문제점인 요소투입의 내생성을 보정함으로써 자본계수 과소추정 및 노동계수 과대추정의 문제를 보완하였다. 분석 결과, 최저임금 인상이 임금, 고용, 생산성에 미치는 영향은 업종별 ꞏ 고용규모별로다르게 나타났다. 특히, 최저임금 인상은 제조업 전반의 생산성 제고에 긍정적인 것으로 추정되었지만 생산성 변화의 방향과 폭은 업종별로 상이했다. 최저임금 인상이 고용규모별생산성에 미친 영향을 보면 전반적으로 고용규모가 작을수록 생산성에 부정적이지만 업종에 따라서는 긍정적인 효과가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 최저임금 인상으로 유발된 임금 상승은 제조업 내 모든 업종에 걸쳐 생산성을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의정책적 시사점은 다음과 같다. 최저임금 인상으로 상당수 업종에서 생산성이 개선되는 것으로 추정된 만큼, 이를 최저임금 상승이 초래하는 노동비용 증가 및 고용 감소 효과와 함께 종합적으로 평가하는 게바람직하다. 아울러 동일한 최저임금 적용에도 불구하고 최저임금영향률의 차이로 인해 최저임금이 고용, 임금, 생산성에 미치는 영향은 업종 ꞏ 규모에 따라 상이할 수 있음에 유념할필요가 있다.
Abstract
Recent discussions about a minimum wage increase (MWI) and its influence on the economy have mainly focused on the quantitative aspects, such as labor costs and employment. However, concerning the qualitative aspects, an MWI could have positive effects by enhancing firm productivity and crowding out marginal firms from the market. These positive effects of an MWI can offset, to some extent, its potential negative effects – increasing labor costs and decreasing employment, among others. In this regard we empirically examine the impact of an MWI on firm productivity (total factor productivity). Using firm level panel data from the manufacturing industry in Korea, we calculate the influence rates of a minimum wage by sector and by firm size (number of workers), and analyze its effects on firm productivity. In particular, the production functions of the firms are estimated by taking into account endogeneity among the input factors, in order to resolve the drawbacks of existing studies – underestimating the capital factor coefficient and overestimating the labor factor coefficient. This study finds that the influences of an MWI on wages, employment, and productivity are substantially different across sectors and firm sizes. While an MWI has shown to have positive influences on productivity growth in the manufacturing industry as a whole, each sector demonstrates a different direction of effect, and the degree of productivity change also varies by sector. The impacts of an MWI on firm productivity are generally estimated to be more negative for smaller firms, but in some sectors the effects are found to be positive. In addition, the wage increases resulting from an MWI seem to cause a productivity enhancement across all sectors in the manufacturing industry. The policy implications of this study are as follows. Considering the empirical findings that an MWI causes an increase in productivity in many sectors of the manufacturing industry, it would be desirable to take into consideration not only the negative side effects but also the positive effects of an MWI when designing any future minimum wage policy. Moreover, in spite of there being a uniform minimum wage, this study finds that the diverse influence rates of a minimum wage across firms have different impacts on wages, employment, and productivity across sectors or firm size. This finding could be conducive to discussions about differentiation among minimum wage schemes by sector or firm size.
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