공시품질이 재무분석가 이익예측에 미치는 영향
An Effect of Disclosure Quality on Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecast
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본 연구에서는 공시품질이 높아지면 재무분석가의 이익예측오차 및 분산이 감소되는지 여부를 검증하였다. 공시품질은 한국기업지배구조센터의 기업지배구조 평가점수 가운데 공시분야 점수로 측정하였다. 재무분석가 이익예측오차는 해당 연도 말을 기준일로 1개월 전 예측치를 사용하여, 재무분석가의 주당순이익 예측치의 중앙값 또는 평균값에서 실제 보고된 주당순이익을 차감한 값의 절대값을 기초주가로 나눈 값으로 측정하였다. 재무분석가의 이익예측분산은 해당 연도 말을 기준일로 1개월 전 예측치를 사용하여, 재무분석가의 주당순이익 예측치의 표준편차를 기초주가로 나눈 값과 그 값에 자연로그를 취한 값으로 측정하였다. 2003년부터 2007년까지 한국거래소 유가증권시장에 상장된 비금융기업을 대상으로 한국기업지배구조센터가 평가하여 산정한 공시분야 점수가 존재하는 기업들 중에서, 재무분석가의 이익예측자료와 분석에 필요한 재무자료를 구할 수 있는 기업을 최종 분석표본으로 선정하였다. 검증결과, 기업지배구조 평가점수 가운데 공시분야 점수로 측정한 공시품질이 재무분석가의 이익예측오차에 유의적인 음의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 공시품질은 재무분석가의 이익예측분산에 유의적인 음의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 기업의 공시품질이 높은 경우 기업과 외부이해관계자 사이의 정보비대칭이 감소되기 때문에, 기업과 외부투자자 사이에서 정보를 중개하는 재무분석가들의 이익예측오차와 이익예측분산이 감소되는 것으로 해석할 수 있다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the association between corporate disclosure quality and financial analysts' earnings forecast. Defining information asymmetry as error or variance of analysts' earnings forecasts and disclosure quality as disclosure scores among corporate governance scores calculated by Korean Corporate Governance Service(KCGS), we examine the effect of disclosure scores on the error or variance of financial analysts' earnings forecast. The samples for this study consist of companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange from the year 2003 to 2007 during which we are able to collect KCGS' disclosure scores. We gather data on the financial analysts and control variables by searching through FnGuide and KisValue, and check them by scanning the annual reports as published in the electronic disclosure system DART (Data Analysis, Retrieval and Transfer System) of the Financial Supervisory Service. To identify the effect of disclosure quality on error or variance of analysts' earnings forecasts, we use multiple regression analysis. The empirical finding of the study is that disclosure quality of firms has a significant negative influence on the error of financial analysts' earnings forecasts. In addition, we show that higher disclosure quality of firms is associated with lower variance of financial analysts' earnings forecasts. These results imply that disclosure quality of companies decreases information asymmetry between managers and firms' outside stakeholders, thus decreasing error and variance of earnings forecasted by financial analysts who perform a key intermediary role in collecting and interpreting information and then passing on their assessment to the wider stakeholders. This study remains meaningful, because we tests empirically the effect of disclosure quality on information asymmetry using measures of high level of validity. The result of this paper can be quite helpful for facilitating future studies on the effect of disclosure quality, and also can provide regulated institutions with helpful guideline.
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