한국경제의 산업별 성장요인 분석과 생산성 추계(1984~2002)
Sources of Industrial Growth and Productivity Estimates in Korea(1984~2002)
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초록
본 논문은 경제위기를 전후한 1984∼2002년의 기간 동안 한국경제의 산업별 성장요인을 분석하고 총요소생산성과 노동생산성을 추계한 것이다. 본 연구가 기존의 연구와 차별되는 점은 총산출 회계를 통해 총요소생산성과 노동생산성을 31개 산업별로 추계하였다는 점에 있다. 분석기간은 생산성 국제비교와 관련한 ICPA Project에 따라 1984∼2002년으로 하였다. 본 연구에서 우리는 산업연관표 이외에도 국민계정 및 국민계정상의 U표와 V표를 이용하였다. 자본스톡의 통계는 Pyo(2002)를 이용하여 2002년까지 연장 추계하였다. 총산출 성장회계(gross output growth accounting)에 의해 1984∼2002년의 기간동안 한국경제의 총요소생산성을 추계분석한 결과, 전 산업의 총요소생산성 증가율은 2.59%, 제조업의 경우 1.63%, 서비스업의 경우 1.06% 등으로 추정되었다. 그러나 총산출 성장기여율을 볼 때, 총요소생산성의 산출기여율은 전 산업의 경우 12%, 제조업의 경우 15%, 서비스업의 경우 11% 정도로 나타남으로써, 아직 한국경제의 성장은 요소투입에 대한 의존도가 상당히 높은 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 한국경제가 효율적 구조로 지속적인 성장을 달성하기 위해서는 총요소생산성주도적(TFP-led) 성장전략을 추구하되 아직은 상당 기간 지속적 자본축적에 의한 요소 주도적(input-led) 성장 전략을 병행하지 않으면 안된다.
Abstract
This paper has analyzed the growth factors of Korean economy by industry level and measured the total factor productivity and labor productivity during the period of 1984~2002. Our contribution is to measure the total factor productivity and labor productivity of 31 industries through the gross output growth accounting. We have classified the entire economy into 31 industrial sectors. We have limited our time-series data to the period of 1984∼2002 because the detailed labor data is not available prior to 1984. We have used U-tables and V-tables in National Accounts as well as IO-Tables and extended the capital stock data into 2002 using Pyo(2002)'s data and the investment data in the National Accounts.Through gross output growth accounting, we have found that the average growth rates of total factor productivity during 1984~2002 are 2.59%, 1.63%, and 1.06% in the whole industries, manufacturing industries, and service industries, respectively. Their contribution ratios to gross output growth are 12%, 15%, and 11%, respectively, which means that the growth of Korean economy still has depended upon the inputs of production. Therefore, we have to implement the TFP-driven growth strategy along with the input-led growth strategy by accumulating capital for the sustainable growth with efficient industrial structure.
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