‘스톡홀름 합의’와 일본의 대북 제재 해제의 배경

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the political intentions behind the Stockholm agreement and the partial lifting of Japanese sanctions against North Korea focusing on the political dynamics in Japan. The analytical argument is that Japan's approach to North Korea is the result of interactions between internal and external factors. The attempts to strengthen power base by mobilizing political support can be seen as an internal factor. The decrease of the popularity of the Abe administration was mainly caused by the setback of 'Abenomics', the leadership style lacking communications, and the increase in the consumption tax rate have become great challenges for the realization of conservative policies including the practice of the right to the collective self-defense and the reinterpretation of the Kono statement. On this account, the Prime Minister Abe has made the Stockholm agreement as a means of mobilizing political support in order to shift the public opinion which are increasingly less favorable to his administration. For the external factor, Japan's approach to North Korea is a tactical card to avoid the diplomatic isolation after the failure of neighbourhood policy and to ease the international criticism on Japan's sex slave abuses. It seems that Abe adminstration's approach to North Korea could end with the partial lifting of its sanctions if there is a feasible result such as the resolve of the abduction of Japanese which increases the administration's popularity. Because Japan will try to adjust the relations with North Korea for the sake of national interests rather than to pursue the normalization of its diplomatic relations with North Korea entailing a risk of breaking the trilateral alliance among US, Japan, and South Korea as long as the security order around the Korean Peninsular remains without change in its nature.