한반도 평화체제의 비관적 전망

Abstract

A peace regime represents a set of rights or rules of peace. Since the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula can be guaranteed by the institutionalization of peace, a peace treaty must be established for the institutionalization of peace. A peace treaty means an agreement between the parties involved in the document. A peace treaty is the role of a necessary condition to conclude disputes in the civil war or international war and to move toward peace. Such a peace agreement is a political negotiation that goes beyond the end of the war and minimizes disputes in the process of peace. To conclude a peace treaty for a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, there are layers of difficulties to solve. The Korean peninsula has become the center of power in which the North Korean nuclear crisis (nuclear and missile) and the interests of the great powers are in conflict. Therefore, the peace regime on the Korean peninsula can not be accomplished by the efforts of either South or North Korea. The peace regime on the Korean peninsula is due to the overcoming of the division system and peace in Northeast Asia. Therefore, this paper begins with the question “Is the peace system on the Korean peninsula possible”. The peace regime on the Korean Peninsula is pessimistic because of the following factors. First, since there is Kim Jung Eun of North Korea with a firm commitment to nuclear development (intercontinental ballistic missile), the North Korean nuclear issue can no longer be subject to negotiations. Second, North Korea is still being used as a strategic asset in China, and it is difficult for any North Korean sanctions to achieve results. Third, the peace regime on the Korean peninsula, where US-China conflict and confrontation are centering on the Korean peninsula, is not an option that the South and the North can discuss. The division of the Korean Peninsula is linked to the survival of the Kim Jung Eun regime, and the geopolitical position of North Korea remains a challenge because it faces a conflict of interests between the great powers. North Korea wants to be assured of its stability as well as its status as a nuclear weapon state through the possession of nuclear weapons and the launch of missiles. In conclusion, the international community and the neighboring countries are more urgently required to cooperate with each other at this time, when the possibility of North Korea’s abandonment of nuclear weapons is unlikely.